Found in notebook written back in 2011:

Prices follow fundamentals. Yes, true. But prices will often lag significantly since information is not efficient. Perception is never 100% correct. ideas of dynamic mean reversion. Fundamentals are not some static variable that once analyzed stays (as is).

Policy or ones philosophy must incorporate this dynamic fact.

Inefficiency allows and gives rise to multiple solutions to similar problems

trends, value, "edge" are all ephemeral because of this.

Right and wrong do not exist; what is, exists

Feb 4, 2015

month one of 2015 passes correct formation still in play

Thesis still stands, pyramid gains here. 

Stop - to resistance or slightly above.

Fews ideas here to possibly confirm.

1. Oil led via fundamentals in its own market

2. Divergence means the prices will revert back to its mean? correlation or whatever? Think pairs trading.

3. volume supports correction, markets behind this. 

4. lots of short covering in WTI spot, however no major fundamental changes here

5. 10% correctin in stocks can mean prices still very soft in crude

6. USD follow correlation beautifully. conveniently timed to euro problems. Markets are linked?

Overall trend set still in play, hold to guns. Main play is stock correction which is lagging. 

Fundamentally don't "feel" real material fundamental strength here need see people take risk off for anything to continue.

Possible swans? Will think about that more later.