tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6515072458415501165.post7945565391230329905..comments2023-09-08T03:55:55.357-04:00Comments on Analyze Capital LLC: "Chinese Credit Growth" - July 2, 2009Analyze Capital LLChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13893472370721559294noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6515072458415501165.post-76259788508043314302009-07-03T23:10:19.929-04:002009-07-03T23:10:19.929-04:00I agree with the points that China needs to divers...I agree with the points that China needs to diversify its exports and focus more on Infrastructure growth. However I am curious to see what augments the lack of exports, especially since the RIO Tinto Chinalco deal fell through which would have given the Republic valuable resources. I would expect commodity markets to be volatile depending on the China's demand for infrastructure spending.Patrick Ambrushttp://www.facebook.com/home.php#/group.php?gid=199665960229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6515072458415501165.post-78984269682179720972009-07-03T23:26:54.960-04:002009-07-03T23:26:54.960-04:00Well one thing I pointed out was the US demand, I ...Well one thing I pointed out was the US demand, I mean they export mainly to the US. this is one of the main reasons why they buy so much US debt is so they got dollars on reserves to suppress the yuan if necessary. <br><br>I mean other things is a weakened world demand, all countries are dealing with their own growth problems and not importing as much. The Eurozone has been hurting for the longest time even before the crash as the EURO was so strong vs the dollar, it was really surprising that the eurozone didn't intervene in the currency market which has been quite typical in their history. <br><br>*on a side note<br>To be honest the Eurozone wouldn't want to be the world reserve currency as it would make the euro much strong and make them net importers. <br><br>One of the biggest issues is that it is a loose confederation of countries (not states like the US that is tightly knit with an overall federal institution). <br><br>I would tend to think most arguments would say the euro becoming the world reserve currency isn't in their best interest.<br><br>Though as your previous article points out, it would be beneficial for Asia (russia, india and china). I haven't read the article yet, but ill reply to you on the discussion board. <br><br>Anyway getting back to the point. other factors that could make export demand worse is poor state policy as i also point out in the article. Trying to mess with the currencies too much and try to force export oriented growth could strain the markets to a collapse and totally kill the economy.<br><br>The commodity markets are already volatile, I would watch oil fundamentals carefully as prices may get really volatile but leaving lots of room for trading opportunities. <br><br>I mean as the media has put it recently, the markets are reacting in a way thinking that china is not in trouble yet as equities keep rallying, and commodity demand still strong (look at the AUS and NZD dollar highest interest rates in the zone, and im sure if you look at thier export data vs their historical its still relatively strong and if you look at their main partners for export you will find china being a big import from AUD and NZD). <br><br>Thats one way to assess chinese demand for infrastructure, but you would probably have to look at greater detail as to which Chinese import is highest and going into what industry/sector and to see even if these imports are dispersed into the economy.Alexander Lêhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17339723939740500782noreply@blogger.com