tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-65150724584155011652024-03-13T08:07:50.030-04:00Analyze Capital LLCAnalyze Capital LLChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13893472370721559294noreply@blogger.comBlogger549125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6515072458415501165.post-6138115176465251242015-04-15T03:17:00.001-04:002015-04-15T03:18:45.155-04:00Q1 SPX update and Review on calls - April 14, 2015Two weeks in Q2<br />
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Lets review from previous post on performance:<br />
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<a href="http://analyzecapital.blogspot.com/2015/02/feb-4-2015.html">Feb 4th 2015 Post</a><br />
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<a href="http://analyzecapital.blogspot.com/2015/01/repost-from-elsewhere-jan-23-2015-lets.html">Jan 23 2015 Post</a><br />
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Formalized from jan 23rd expecting big correction, qualified in feb 10% correciton in US equities needed.<br />
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Thesis still in play:<br />
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<ul>
<li>Resistance in play</li>
<li>Short term strong closes below 50 SMA</li>
<li>Big test to see price stabilize below 200 SMA</li>
<li>Series of Higher Lows</li>
<li>Sentiment in line with interest rates and FED speak</li>
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Fundamentally weak support going into corporate earnings. Whats to drive prices higher in short to medium term? </div>
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<li>Theoretically weak consumer. </li>
<li>Energy sector weak</li>
<li>Financials so so</li>
<li>Utilities? 2014 trend positive</li>
<li>Healthcare?</li>
<li>Tech?</li>
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Not enough positives to push higher. </div>
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Is contigon from Europe a possibility? Psychologically and technically yes only imho. I see 10% drop only as a price correction in the larger bullish equity trend. We will need to see macro correlations consistently disappoint to see a sustained down trend to end of year. </div>
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Get the feeling we see correction and year ends flat. </div>
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*Side note: Greece needs to blow up and leave the eurozone. Too much at stake for whole system to tank. Cut the cancer and move on. Short term will be bloody and messy but we need this shock to the system to correct fundamentally. Will be interesting to see how Iceland moves forward as well given different trajectory and path post blow out. </div>
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Clarity Conclusion:</div>
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<li>Still expect greater than 10% correction in 2nd quarter</li>
<li>Once it occurs need to assess fundamentals and sentiment closer</li>
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Long long term is up, short term and medium bearish (long long = year to years out and short and medium equals one month to 6 months)</div>
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Need to see broader picture too relative to other financial markets and other global markets to gain more context.</div>
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Above is more or less a pure technical play with some brief fundamental/sentiment considerations based on headline skimming</div>
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<br />thaiminhlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17339723939740500782noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6515072458415501165.post-34368246706367155952015-02-24T08:35:00.003-05:002015-02-24T08:35:51.459-05:00<b>Found in notebook written back in 2011:</b><br />
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Prices follow fundamentals. Yes, true. But prices will often lag significantly since information is not efficient. Perception is never 100% correct. ideas of dynamic mean reversion. Fundamentals are not some static variable that once analyzed stays (as is).<br />
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Policy or ones philosophy must incorporate this dynamic fact.<br />
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Inefficiency allows and gives rise to multiple solutions to similar problems<br />
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trends, value, "edge" are all ephemeral because of this.<br />
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Right and wrong do not exist; what is, exists<br />
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<br />thaiminhlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17339723939740500782noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6515072458415501165.post-85520469522655914652015-02-03T20:12:00.000-05:002015-02-03T20:12:03.224-05:00Feb 4, 2015<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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month one of 2015 passes correct formation still in play</div>
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Thesis still stands, pyramid gains here. </div>
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Stop - to resistance or slightly above.</div>
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Fews ideas here to possibly confirm.</div>
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1. Oil led via fundamentals in its own market</div>
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2. Divergence means the prices will revert back to its mean? correlation or whatever? Think pairs trading.</div>
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3. volume supports correction, markets behind this. </div>
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4. lots of short covering in WTI spot, however no major fundamental changes here</div>
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5. 10% correctin in stocks can mean prices still very soft in crude</div>
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6. USD follow correlation beautifully. conveniently timed to euro problems. Markets are linked?</div>
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Overall trend set still in play, hold to guns. Main play is stock correction which is lagging. </div>
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Fundamentally don't "feel" real material fundamental strength here need see people take risk off for anything to continue.</div>
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Possible swans? Will think about that more later.</div>
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thaiminhlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17339723939740500782noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6515072458415501165.post-27330840991101929702015-01-22T13:05:00.001-05:002015-01-22T13:07:37.991-05:00Repost from elsewhere - Jan 23, 2015 - lets get back into it<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<ul>
<li>uncharted territories</li>
<li>no value in these earnings</li>
<li>correction to real leg up needed to get full extension on trend (think waves)</li>
<li>Still relatively cheap given highs and history</li>
<li>Smart buys at 1400-1500</li>
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hedge on inverses</div>
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look for the values on drop</div>
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Short term trend looks very weak. First two quarters retrace? Buy in? How to play first and second quarter in terms of portfolio allocation?</div>
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The year 2014 is just the extension of the raging bull form 2013, but is there any valitity here? NO fundamentals going into the trend. Need to confirm with volume analysis and sentiment indicators. </div>
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Gut feeling says BS on the year leg up. Smart money exiting waiting for crash given last quarter performance 2014. Lots of nice long covering from Oct 2014. </div>
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Trend actually extends from 2012 bull market. Post sovereign debt = us economy driven sentiment. Pent up unused capital became less risk averse with no where to go. US seems good? ok why not... lots of werid stuff going on in currencies. Lots of mixed indicators dollar strength and commos makes sense but equities not following... slow convergence. </div>
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Will like to see this baby crash be full fully going in.</div>
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Maybe good plays to start getting back in the game is to short the dollar. Will look into how to get this exposure later if thesis makes sense. </div>
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<br />thaiminhlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17339723939740500782noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6515072458415501165.post-76989473847947943052013-10-07T04:35:00.003-04:002013-10-07T04:35:50.889-04:00BBRY - Update 2013<a href="http://analyzecapital.blogspot.com/2013/09/bbry-sept-21-2013.html">http://analyzecapital.blogspot.com/2013/09/bbry-sept-21-2013.html</a><br />
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Called it<br />
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<a href="http://www.theverge.com/2013/10/4/4804362/blackberry-reportedly-in-talks-with-google-samsung-and-others-about">blackberry-reportedly-in-talks-with-google-samsung-and-others-about-buyout</a><br />
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Ozm1tbWpUlg/UlJxtTnUj-I/AAAAAAAADnk/qwrKP0E9uQM/s1600/bbry.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="305" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Ozm1tbWpUlg/UlJxtTnUj-I/AAAAAAAADnk/qwrKP0E9uQM/s400/bbry.png" width="400" /> </a></div>
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<ul>
<li>Price rapidly approaching buy zone. Another 1.50+ off and I think its fair game to buy </li>
<li>Unlikely deals will sour unless management is that bad... given company performance perhaps it wouldn't' be surprising if they did</li>
<li>I think other exits are unlikely and they will be forced to sell cheap</li>
<li>Negative scrutiny from MSFT NOK deal</li>
<li>Lots of short term pressures to see price go further down = better value in buy once deal goes through</li>
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<br />thaiminhlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17339723939740500782noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6515072458415501165.post-71676082592452593472013-09-30T23:45:00.001-04:002013-09-30T23:51:15.234-04:00GIS - OCT 1 2013Old chart from last week - 3 year weekly chart<br />
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-8LOXxviJHsg/UkpEERBTSXI/AAAAAAAADnU/5HtFJ5TSVnU/s1600/GIS_3_year_weekly.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="310" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-8LOXxviJHsg/UkpEERBTSXI/AAAAAAAADnU/5HtFJ5TSVnU/s400/GIS_3_year_weekly.png" width="400" /> </a></div>
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Lets look at the long term chart and top down fundamentals:</div>
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<li>Strong strong trend past 3 years</li>
<li>Long term chart says correction needed</li>
<li>Likely correction longer term out</li>
<li>60% of top line from US --> how is consumption in staples?</li>
<li>How are commodities prices? Is there pressure? If pressure what spill over can we expect?</li>
<li>Inflation indicates probably no price pressure, Fed confirms with policy (however there are divergences from individual commos markets to equities, must look more carefully)</li>
<li>How is growth expansion abroad? Can GIS diversify revenue further?</li>
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It would be nice to see longer historical price trends. No thoughts no calls, no HW done.<br />
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<br />thaiminhlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17339723939740500782noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6515072458415501165.post-71677349421234040092013-09-21T04:05:00.002-04:002013-09-21T04:05:20.445-04:00Rambling ThoughtsI love the divergence of equities and commodities seen from 2012 and 2013. Break from historical correlation leaves rooms for many ways to make more money and a more interesting dynamic to look at. Time to start looking back at fx and commos again.thaiminhlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17339723939740500782noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6515072458415501165.post-5714360151779232702013-09-21T04:02:00.002-04:002013-09-21T04:02:37.336-04:00PCLN - Sept 21 2013 - 3 Year Weekly Chart<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-zdpMG0A6lWc/Uj1R7W7CZaI/AAAAAAAADnE/Zv6xPTUuFvI/s1600/price_line.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="315" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-zdpMG0A6lWc/Uj1R7W7CZaI/AAAAAAAADnE/Zv6xPTUuFvI/s400/price_line.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<ul>
<li>Look at this awesome trend</li>
<li>We are looking for a 10 - 15% correction at these levels</li>
<li>Buy on big correction --> very possible can get a strong second leg of dumb money going up after correction</li>
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<li>Risk to thesis - interesting volume action August 2012</li>
<li>Lack of strong volume confirmation on last leg</li>
<li>Above risk probably indicative of correction as mentioned above</li>
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<li>Look to fundamentals to confirm despite irrational exuberance</li>
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<br />thaiminhlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17339723939740500782noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6515072458415501165.post-91759072380420456382013-09-21T03:58:00.001-04:002013-09-21T03:58:16.027-04:00AMZN Update - Sept 21 2013<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<ul>
<li style="text-align: left;">Close above break in resistance = confirmation of healthy trend</li>
<li style="text-align: left;">Conservative look for a few days closes around 320+</li>
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<br />thaiminhlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17339723939740500782noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6515072458415501165.post-58199567190855148822013-09-21T03:45:00.004-04:002013-09-21T03:45:55.345-04:00BBRY - Sept 21 2013<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-CCaHQ-uWNhM/Uj1OLNq3JzI/AAAAAAAADmw/ayh5AqL3U_4/s1600/buyout_bbry.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="312" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-CCaHQ-uWNhM/Uj1OLNq3JzI/AAAAAAAADmw/ayh5AqL3U_4/s400/buyout_bbry.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<ul>
<li>Looking very good for buyout candidate</li>
<li>Easy to get on cheap valuations</li>
<li>Definitely entries at or below historical support from 1 year go (sept 2012)</li>
<li>Company needs to be revamped</li>
<li>New strategy sounds desperate and little add value and even if it works it has limited upside to profits unless they cut beyond current plans...</li>
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<br />thaiminhlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17339723939740500782noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6515072458415501165.post-20314398950928781742013-09-10T02:20:00.001-04:002013-09-10T02:20:21.692-04:00SYMC update 9/10/2013<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-qVLUJSIgNiI/Ui64obH_LwI/AAAAAAAADmU/V149ked7NVM/s1600/symc.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="306" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-qVLUJSIgNiI/Ui64obH_LwI/AAAAAAAADmU/V149ked7NVM/s400/symc.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<li>I remember from back in 2006 that SYMC responds well to technicals</li>
<li>Overall SYMC is a shit stock from what I understood</li>
<li>However, despite any bad fundamentals strong technicals could prevail in the short term</li>
<li>Gaps like this usually don't lie and is in tact with overall recent uptrend ( see below)</li>
<li>Break in resistance, profit covering --> back to support</li>
<li>We looking at green buy zone</li>
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Nice, trend dude:</div>
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-CtaDm_DsvaA/Ui65rMvzuzI/AAAAAAAADmg/noAEXpJlyTQ/s1600/symc1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="306" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-CtaDm_DsvaA/Ui65rMvzuzI/AAAAAAAADmg/noAEXpJlyTQ/s400/symc1.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<ul>
<li>Given the nature of the STRONG trend from June last year... its possible the above scenario would need to be a short term buy. Enough to get you over 27 for sure. </li>
<li>If you believe in Waves, this trend looks like its going to collapse</li>
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Summary</div>
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<li>Short term buy</li>
<li>Watch closely to catch the first leg of shorts</li>
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<br />thaiminhlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17339723939740500782noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6515072458415501165.post-63708664047640596412013-09-06T06:09:00.001-04:002013-09-06T06:09:16.208-04:00MSFT update SEP 6 2013<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-i0QF0XvXdpo/UimpQBzx4JI/AAAAAAAADmE/MN-Kd5iTk9U/s1600/Screen+shot+2013-09-06+at+5.05.38+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="249" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-i0QF0XvXdpo/UimpQBzx4JI/AAAAAAAADmE/MN-Kd5iTk9U/s320/Screen+shot+2013-09-06+at+5.05.38+PM.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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Shallow thoughts:<br />
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<li>Smart money is gone now which begs...</li>
<li>Is Ballmer leaving really a fundamentally good thing for the company?</li>
<li>If yes, buy at support or below support because its value realized over a longer period?</li>
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Look to longer picture for technical buys...</div>
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Very interesting gaps. Strong volume gap down, strong volume gap up however couldn't breach resistance. Again, look for longer term plays here. Looks like of sideways roller-coastering from here in the short to medium term. </div>
thaiminhlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17339723939740500782noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6515072458415501165.post-49877798387066002452013-08-23T12:29:00.001-04:002013-08-23T12:29:12.941-04:005 Month Laters AMZN - AUG 23 2013BOOM<br />
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My only and best call for 2013.<br />
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See quote from Post: "<a href="http://analyzecapital.blogspot.com/2013/04/amzn-update-april-2nd-2013-update.html">AMZN Update April 2nd 2013 Update</a>"<br />
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<span style="background-color: white;">"<span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Lucida Sans', arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22.390625px;">If support can hold up trend still in tact = Buy in 240-250's range. Depending on how strong conviction is or trading style (waiting for confirmation on up swing, pre-emp buy in before move, scale in slowly pyramid up on confirmation). "</span></span><br />
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Buy in at 240 - 250 was the correct zone to buy in. The trend materialized one month later in May for the buy zone and unfolded through MAY --> JUNE --> JULY. Finally, the short term trend peaked out in the 310 range making about a 20 - 30% gain on price from buy in zone to peak.<br />
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Hell, the trend still looks healthy to me. However, we are exploring uncharted areas in the 300+ range. Fundamentally is AMZN sound? I dunno, but management still remains strong and if the core values are still there we should continue to see continued long term uptrend.<br />
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No comments on current correction in play. Possible pyramiding area if you buy into the continued up trend in the short term... hell look at the S&P500 this past year. Crazy stuff. (remind me to not say this is a call... NO BACK TRADING... more of light observations)<br />
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Longer long term view... hmmm, get that gut feeling that internet is going to be another bubble either that theres just too much possible collapsable focus in the space despite there seemingly being more grounded reasons to be in internet vs. circa 99 - 00's ...thaiminhlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17339723939740500782noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6515072458415501165.post-68169617261663123282013-04-10T12:47:00.001-04:002013-04-10T12:47:53.043-04:00AMZN - April 10, 2013CAN 267 HOLD???thaiminhlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17339723939740500782noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6515072458415501165.post-38694278954613486372013-04-06T16:03:00.002-04:002013-04-06T16:05:42.777-04:00Good Read<a href="http://www.vanityfair.com/business/2013/04/bill-ackman-dan-loeb-herbalife">http://www.vanityfair.com/business/2013/04/bill-ackman-dan-loeb-herbalife</a><br />
<br />
Interesting read highlighting fundamentals investment mindsets vs not so explicit trading mindsets. Knowing a truth doesn't mean a trade materialize in that truthful direction. No one sees markets in 20/20 vision.<br />
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The whole MLM aspect too was interesting in that such a strong fundamental view coming from Ackman failed to capture the many different types of people involved in the Herbalife business. His viewpoint comes from a very high level one track mindset.<br />
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I've been to a few Amway meetings, and they try to recruit like cults. The average person involved in distribution for an MLM most probability won't know or care what some Fat Cat Hedgie guy thinks or says. MLM's run on a faith type system and highlight the 1% Ackman highlights as successful, as a norm or something to aspire too. Reinforcement, and self-fulfilling yumminess.<br />
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Hope and faith are a powerful thing. Powerful enough to trump any short plays. The only question is how long can Ackman's billions last until the margin calls ring in...<br />
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Who knows, maybe he will get lucky like that time Robertson sat on a metals position for more than 5 years to claim he was "right" on the trade after it moved in the desired direction...<br />
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When you are well funded, its easier to sit on tougher positions.<br />
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<br />thaiminhlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17339723939740500782noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6515072458415501165.post-18998631872371010032013-04-02T10:49:00.001-04:002013-04-02T10:52:20.317-04:00AMZN Update April 2nd 2013 UpdateJan 24 my last comments on AMZN --> <a href="http://analyzecapital.blogspot.com/2013/01/amzn-jan-24-2013.html">HERE</a><br />
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Jan 24:<br />
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<ul>
<li>High - 276.65</li>
<li>Low - 269.37</li>
<li>CLOSE -273.62</li>
</ul>
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Technical perspective very interesting. Jan 24 candle indicative of failing bullish momentum, confirmed with next day failed gap above previous high with lack of volume confirmation (20/20 hindsight)</div>
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Followed by lovely volume confirmation of next few days correction. </div>
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March 21 Close - 253.39</div>
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From Jan 24th Close to March 21st close = 7.4% correction from last call Jan 24th</div>
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10% correction from the close of 24th would = 246.25</div>
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15% correction from the close of 24th would = 232.57</div>
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If my analysis from the 24th is correct we will see 200day SMA support with price noise piercing below 200SMA changes. True support should hold with close above 200 SMA. </div>
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If support can hold up trend still in tact = Buy in 240-250's range. Depending on how strong conviction is or trading style (waiting for confirmation on up swing, pre-emp buy in before move, scale in slowly pyramid up on confirmation). </div>
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LONG WINDED NOTES</div>
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Above very linear analysis pure chart no comparison. </div>
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Some interesting notes look at various time frames of AMZN vs $COMP and $SPX stockcharts.com. </div>
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VOLUME</div>
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<br /></div>
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Volume on Jan 29th not so different from high volume seen in 2012 during other major corrections (mid sep - mid nov 2012). </div>
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If volume from 24th is consistent with last years trend, bullish picture still very much in tact. However, watch short term price movements and support carefully to see if volume kills bullish scenario with much lower than expected price moves.</div>
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PRICE</div>
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<br /></div>
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Looking at short term picture. Amazon significantly out performed SPX and COMP for the first two months. By the end of the third month prices converged already (would have made for interesting pairs trade scenario if one was aware). </div>
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In terms of index performance, the first month COMP outperformed SPX slightly. By the end of the second month SPX caught up, and starting from the third month SPX started to greatly outperform COMP. </div>
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The question is how indicative is the 30 day price performance for the short term going forward?</div>
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IF as I suspect long term trend is up, price convergence should be bullish. Prices should correct further to stated above and we can expect higher highs. Given the recent performance of SPX, COMP and AMZN would have to play catch up, and SPX lag a little. Perhaps there can be some fundamental evidence found for this? </div>
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However, if longer term picture is more relevant, AMZN/COMP need to correct significantly relative to SPX performance from 2009.</div>
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From 2009:</div>
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<br /></div>
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<ul>
<li>AMZN prices are 300%+ higher</li>
<li>COMP prices are 40%+ higher</li>
<li>SPX prices are 20% higher</li>
</ul>
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</div>
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This being said though, more than often or not, human perception of technicals in such a long time frame to interpret something relevant is difficult as fundamentals become more important in such time frames. </div>
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Though as perhaps is still true, post 2008 crisis, macro environment can trump fundamentals easily...</div>
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Another interesting signal may be all this M&A spike and big move in equities past year... Bubblicious or indicative? Perhaps for another post.</div>
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thaiminhlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17339723939740500782noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6515072458415501165.post-6225638516789690052013-01-24T09:19:00.000-05:002013-01-24T09:19:05.512-05:00AMZN Jan 24, 2013Beginning to believe a 10-15% correction needed for a good healthy correction for AMZN to end positive this year. Trend and momentum still favor up.<br />
<br />
Anything beyond 15%+ changes trend changer.<br />
<br />
Will dig in the financials to see whats in store for the year.<br />
<br />
<br />thaiminhlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17339723939740500782noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6515072458415501165.post-27978754745262678212013-01-21T12:04:00.000-05:002013-01-21T12:04:05.191-05:00AMZN - JAN 2013<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jL5SiVHEKDI/UP107lJ9zCI/AAAAAAAAB5Q/H3xTe5EGDJ4/s1600/Screen+shot+2013-01-22+at+12.03.11+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="448" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jL5SiVHEKDI/UP107lJ9zCI/AAAAAAAAB5Q/H3xTe5EGDJ4/s640/Screen+shot+2013-01-22+at+12.03.11+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
I was looking at AMZN back in NOV/DEC 2012. I'm not really a stock guy but looking purely on technicals here. Though in general after some venture building experience stocks do suddenly make more sense after all. Its something I could probably understand with time. Some of those fundamentals that were drilled into me back in 2006 make more sense.<br />
<br />
All in all though with current scale, don't think its still the game for me unless I played some futures, but then again never the same liquidity I'd be looking that I could get in currencies or commodities at better leverage.<br />
<br />
Over this year I'll re examine the basic and see if I can make any interesting plays, may be play some long term investment oriented ideas over trades and vice versa.<br />
<br />
In general, after having a WHOLE blank year I think it would be good to clean the slate and reformulate strategy. Study some history and see if I can make a better product this year...<br />
<br />
Off the tangent...<br />
<br />
AMZN looks amazing on the chart long term, 5 year and Max. 5 Year steady trend. If I learned anything its really hard playing the long term trends as the path to up is very confusing and tricky from 5 - 10% volatility jumps. Sometimes those fundamentals will really kill you when information was never clear and present as well... 180 degrees thesis killer.<br />
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I would make this call as of January based of basic eye balling...<br />
<br />
buy into the dip within the first quarter. Trend should still be strong through out 2013. The stock has amazingly outperformed the market in the past 5 years and I would expect it to continue to do so.<br />
<br />
I think from here it would be good to look at putting the fundamental picture together here to fillin the holes and gaps to see if this makes sense as a good long term play.<br />
<br />
Previously I was interested in shorting if there were solid closes on the daily below 220 but that never happend with strong SMA support.<br />
<br />
In general break up top confirms strong upward momentum with strong gap up in price... the only real bad thing is the lack of volume confirmation.<br />
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Again a correction maybe due and hopefully strong fundamental catalyst can kick in to get this trend really going.<br />
<br />thaiminhlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17339723939740500782noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6515072458415501165.post-77427492011442996372012-10-29T10:47:00.001-04:002012-10-29T10:47:21.933-04:00Hurricane SandyToday, would be a Great day, or at the very least day to trade energy products. VERY few commos trading. No equities, and most futures not trading. We can be seeing lots of pure price action of energy moves. Worth looking into.<br />
<br />
Time to start revising old historical correlations. Will post back later if I get my correlation tool running again. Need to find a good place to pull decent historical data.<br />
<br />
Stay safe if you are on the east coast, and hope everyone is prepared.<br />
<br />
-Analyze Capital LLC<br />
<br />thaiminhlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17339723939740500782noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6515072458415501165.post-51676404058788903102012-10-28T22:07:00.002-04:002012-10-28T22:07:37.103-04:00Open BooksAfter a year I open the books again. Feel free to browse during operations of 2011 since we no longer solicit investments.thaiminhlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17339723939740500782noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6515072458415501165.post-15691468710225152822011-12-12T03:20:00.001-05:002011-12-12T03:20:43.409-05:00Last week Daily Recaps - 2nd week DEC 2011<br />
<div style="background-color: transparent;">
<span id="internal-source-marker_0.9392239898443222" style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">DEC 9, 2011</span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Last night I filled an order to short K200 (Kospi 200) at 251. I wanted to do this trade to take advantage of the Asian lag in equities. Double top confirmation. Very negative carry through from the ECB rate cut. Unfortunately interactive brokers was being very stupid and didn’t verify my trading permission for some reason. Kospi dropped 244. One contract would have given roughly around +2,600plus USD. </span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The general trend for today was some what typical:</span><ol>
<li style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; list-style-type: decimal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Asian Hour consolidation from and slowly trading in a tight range continuing the trend (DX peaked of mid day yesterday then traded lower until asia opend, WTI traded lower small range, EURUSD traded a bit lower, USDCHF traded a bit higher). </span></li>
<li style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; list-style-type: decimal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">European/UK hours hit and STRONG risk on trend. lots of covering perhaps since US hours seem strong in the opposite direction of europe. It seems a strong consolidating range before another big move to come. </span></li>
<li style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; list-style-type: decimal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">US hours hit and completely reverses and erases most of European trading range. </span></li>
</ol>
<br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; color: red; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">USDCHF behavior inline with my expectations. What would seem to be going on is perhaps strong swiss franc buying during european hours and then strong treasury buying during US hours. At least rationally this would explain what we saw today. </span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The werid thing is, EURCHF has been tightly ranged bound. Perhaps not enough swiss franc buying has occured yet. Largely the effects of the USDCHF safe haven has all worn off or is priced in since its giant correction. Perhaps risk aversion seems to be the correct trend to play. People perhaps mostly are in cash. And its mostly USD driven price action. Though the swiss franc was ranged vs the EUR, the US treasuries were down today, indication perhaps short covering. Or new risk appetite coming in. Either way, it was clear this was what was driving the dollar weakness today. Not any flight to quality in the Swiss Franc. Perhaps people stopped with the swiss franc play due to the Central Bank warnings. 0.89 would be a good range to avoid getting spiked by central CHF selling. </span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Lowered the stop on the USD/CHF to about 10 pips above the previous high before todays European big drop. Hopefully the prices stay below and USD selling picks up or CHF buying starts up...</span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; color: red; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">DEC 8, 2011</span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Markets are getting dominated by the news of the Eurozone rate cut. Again the risk affecting my USD/CHF trade materialized and is primarily driven from flight to quality trades + strong selling action due to interest rate impetus. The thesis of quantitative easing for the EU is no longer a viable rumor buying trade, past monetary policy has shown to be more hawkish in this respect (despite a ECB banking president change), and a general sentiment lack of credibility in the region. </span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The risk continuing is a prolonged risk aversion trend (signaled via 80+ DX), or if the whole EU region is deemed unsafe and the CHF will tank along with the region. </span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Conversely, what may save my trade is if 1.) the CHF is viable flight to quality assest class in the short run, and the relative interest rate variables add to the CHF inflows. </span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">A good hedge to consider is short Crude on technicals. Fundamentally rumor risk from the EU/West/Iran situation remains. Early 2010 shows how dangerous and powerful rumors that materialize can be. The crude oil complex is highly financials post 2008. Rumor/Fundamentals/financials are definitely influencing crude in the short term. </span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">A cleaner hedge may be to short equities</span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Another way to buffer the overall portfolio is to trade soft agri, or animal commodities, natural gas or uncorrelated equities. </span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">DEC 7, 2011</span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">USDCHF looking very ranged with little volume. Daily double top pattern is still in tact but is trading about 15 to 20 pips above my entry. Any uncertain data may stop me out. If that is the case I will have to wait for re-entry at the same levels. Possibly leverage a little more if the direction is correct.</span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Double top in Asian equity futures also looking attractive. Maybe a good hedge to risk on scenario if my ST play is not working out. Strong Double top on Australian and Korean equities (ASX KOSPI200). This is ST oriented, may be invalidated if prices can spike higher than previous resistance (and with possible pull back may mean buy the dip).</span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Volatility confirms this ranged scenario, the flat ST trend in the Russel Dow and Nasdaq volatility index. Once volatility spikes trend will start to go. I haven’t crunched specific probabilities, but it seems it can go either way with risk aversion or risk on. </span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">ES - US Equities from Asian Hours started to break out to higher weekly ranges, but still needs to hold steady in the 1270 range to continue bullish momentum.</span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Crude Oil - WTI needs to break 102 to hold bullish momentum as well. </span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Good uncorrelated plays to consider trading right now would be NG/QG or Japanese Equities. </span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; color: red; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Trades Considering - DEC 05, 2011</span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Long EURUSD and Short USDCHF (long risk) - time frame next few weeks into Q1 2012 (EURUSD targets 1.40+ and 0.88 for USDCHF)</span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Long Crude on Pull back to 100 or below 99 even. If pullback is higher than previous low. Set tight stop. </span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">ES seems a bit trickier since its HUGE jump on 11/30/2011. Prices seem to be superficial at these levels. Perhaps Dow will point to better clues. If YM fails at 12200 (current level) perhaps shorting ES would be a better idea in ST. If YM does fail along with ES this may give an opportunity to get long crude after the drop. Either ways equities do need to correct to sustain a healthy trend.</span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Risk positive indicators. Todays confirmation of DX trend down + 5,7,10,30 year treasury futures seem to continue to form bearish top patterns. </span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Risk to longing risk is that the EU uncertainty may rear its ugly head again. Short term sentiment seems elated to the bullish side (need to check across put/call ratios) but post NFP trend seems to indicate this. Any trip on significant Econ data or new shocking bad news from the EU can quickly turn back to risk aversion. Volatility expect to be high in ST. </span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Maybe time to start scaling in small NG positions for long term trade. Bottoming may be on the way... supply needs to stabilize or demand needs to significantly pick up. Need to check research on this. </span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 19px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">In general, I want to play contrarian going into 2012. There seems to be lots of negative built up sentiment from MACRO issues. There is plenty of room for upside surprises. Though the uncertainty and instability from the EU + US and possibly Asia now all point to choppy waters ahead. Expect lots of volatility. Also, maybe time to look for bottoming action in Asian equities for short term squeeze up. Chinese easing is an interesting thesis to develop around. Superficial growth may lead to over inflated prices a good opportunity to short some time in later 2012. </span></div>Analyze Capital LLChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13893472370721559294noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6515072458415501165.post-72784710908505446992011-12-06T14:46:00.000-05:002011-12-06T14:46:41.342-05:00Market Update: Dec 7, 2011Dec 6 for US still.<br />
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Lesson learned today, despite what you are seeing stick to your initial point of entry.<br />
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Today entered USDCHF at 0.924 and prices already shot up to 0.927. Originally I was thinking below 0.927 as a good entry point but was worried I wouldn't get the fill. I roughly have a 100 pip margin until a stop is triggered, so I should be ok.<br />
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DX is ideally inline with my trade, but EURUSD still under pressure despite DX continuing to keep ST pressure under 78.7.<br />
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There is a dislocation with ES as well with prices failing to scientifically push higher. In my trading notes, I point out that a bigger correction for equities is needed first before a bigger move up. If that is the case my USDCHF is in danger in the ST. YM (mini dow) and NQ (mini nasadaq) confirm bearish pattern development on the ST daily charts.<br />
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CL (WTI) is pushing up but still is below ST resistance. Bigger catalyst are needed for a full risk on scenario. The pressures from the EU and uncertainty looming is still allowing for risk aversion to linger and cause this relative range environment.<br />
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Ideally EURUSD needs to push above 1.34 and ES needs to some how push higher back into the 1270 range. if my USDCHF doens't work out I may have to 1) short ES ST or 2) Buy ES at more attractive levels.<br />
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Ideally a hedge may work better.<br />
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More tomorrow. liquidity is a bit slow<br />
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Tommorow:<br />
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<ul><li>GBP USD unofficial estimates</li>
<li>NZD rate announcement</li>
<li>AUD employment situation</li>
</ul><div>Consider GBPUSD position before THURSDAY</div>Analyze Capital LLChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13893472370721559294noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6515072458415501165.post-47777569217731255362011-11-18T13:16:00.000-05:002011-11-18T13:16:00.537-05:00Shame Shame 2 months no post - Old GBPUSD Chart updated - Nov 19, 2011Pretty crazy, I've been extremely busy trying to transition to Asia. I think I'm getting used to the new structure and hopefully things start getting rolling again. In the mean time here is an old GBPUSD chart I found:<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-IoLxiQq_0F0/Tsad7rSpJYI/AAAAAAAAAhw/LvINYYfq4tk/s1600/EURUSD+2008+to+2011+weekly.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="187" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-IoLxiQq_0F0/Tsad7rSpJYI/AAAAAAAAAhw/LvINYYfq4tk/s400/EURUSD+2008+to+2011+weekly.png" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
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</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Originally this chart was drawn in June 2010. It was later tweaked some time in early NOV 2010. In general my long term read was quite good on the pound. I had targeted higher in the 1.70 range with a comfortable trading range developing with a strong return to growth. UK Austerity and the EU debt crisis has made this impossible in the short term. But the resilience of the pound remained. Despite a large drop in mid to late NOV 2010 the pound continued to rally on inflation hawkish fears all the way to 1.67 in early April 2011. Of course this over exuberance burst with slow growth and weak economic data. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">There was a strong correction to 1.60 with a strong bounce off support. With the first fail to break higher than 1.67 the move to support should have lead to move the stop to 1.60 on a long LT trade. The fail to break 1.67/1.65 higher on the second time should have been confirmation of the long term trend being over. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Overall a pyramid trade on this chart would have been very successful theoretically. The main issue I had with my read of the markets was not understanding how long it would take my read to unfold. Risk certain was there, but only in the long term. The interim for risk was also very choppy and sticking to ones guns would have been very hard. Trading long term would require deep pockets of liquidity or very low leverage and the confidence to stick through the big drops or at least lighten the leverage load and pyramid back on strong moves up. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Again, this is a classic case where I was right but not profitable. I believe my GBPUSD trades for 2011 mostly resulted in negative territory. Time to take a fresh look at the pound for 2012 and try and be consistent and read and trading. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Alexander Le</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Managing Partner</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Analyze Captial LLC</div>Analyze Capital LLChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13893472370721559294noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6515072458415501165.post-86681289950099603862011-09-22T04:43:00.002-04:002011-09-22T05:13:46.171-04:00Quick Update Post Fed Action Sept 22, 2011Panic seems to be the theme. No pause in bearish trend. <div><br /></div><div><ul><li>US treasury futures behaving exactly as the twist was defined. 10Y price breakouts to the upside. 30Y steady but yet to break out. 2Y and 7Y tanked.</li><li>DX 78 was key, and break out led to full out USDCHF breakout (broken confidence in Eurozeone). Next test 80 in sight. Fail at 80 = possible risk on correction. Perhaps try to fade 00's</li><li>USDCAD extending bullish breakout to top fibs. USDNOK Extending bullish break out to top fibs. Yen tried to unwind but went all wild; USDYEN rallied 700+ pips and has pared back all those gains since then.</li><li>EURUSD 1.38 --> 1.35 300 pips post fed. Pound no pause continues downward fall to 1.54</li><li>NZDUSD below previous historical breakout resistance level. AUDUSD below parity.</li><li>Currencies erased all gains for 2011 pretty much. </li><li>Interesting gold is very quiet; this seems to be more FED related than panic possibly or gold has been priced in or is correcting from it overvalued highs. If risk aversion is really hear 2000 target is in sights. </li><li>ES technically can be still considered bull trend.Prints that stick below 1140 can reverse this.</li><li>NG making new all time lows ahead of supply numbers</li><li>Shorting crude at 85 was correct (short 84.9 ---> 83). Seems trend can extend. Look to re-enter on bounces.</li></ul><div><br /></div></div><div>It seems that 2011 will be a slightly bearish year if we can get the risk rally/risk correction before the year ends. If not this year will be bearish overall. Its possible that all this bearish sentiment can create a self fulfilling prophecy that will lead the world back in to recession. At this point both scenarios seem very possible. </div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>Analyze Capital LLC</div><div>AnalyzeCapital(at)gmail.com</div><div><br /></div>thaiminhlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17339723939740500782noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6515072458415501165.post-15304418657786846682011-09-13T14:36:00.000-04:002011-09-13T14:36:49.355-04:00Market Update September 2011<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-cRBkjh2gFig/Tm3d5JtyNtI/AAAAAAAAAhI/gp0nmmb8G-4/s1600/Septembers+Equity+Update.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-cRBkjh2gFig/Tm3d5JtyNtI/AAAAAAAAAhI/gp0nmmb8G-4/s320/Septembers+Equity+Update.png" width="262" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-gG7A13VVcBc/Tm3iXCTaN9I/AAAAAAAAAhY/kDMwdSZWC7Q/s1600/percetnage+equites+update.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="256" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-gG7A13VVcBc/Tm3iXCTaN9I/AAAAAAAAAhY/kDMwdSZWC7Q/s320/percetnage+equites+update.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">It took almost 2 and half years before European Equities started to reflect some true fundamental value in share prices. The DAX has almost erased all of its gains from mid 2009. And almost 30% down from its yearly highs seen at the end of June 2011. Also, Italian equities are not too far behind German equities close to 30% down from the end of June. This is reflecting a collapse in confidence in the sustainability of the Eurozone (Spanish and French equities almost 23% - 24% down from July highs). This is compared to UK and and US equities which have dropped only about 11% to 12% of prices. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The question for US and UK equities is if these indices will continue diverge and bottom or continue to drop in the face of continued uncertainty. My thesis for the end of 2011 is way off at this point though my time frames may have been off. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">If the SPX can consolidate at 1150 its a possibility for a strong price recovery into 2012 to 1300. Its possible the equities will continue to rally up until the November elections. However, if prices fail at 1150 below 1000 is possible if no certainty is returned. It is more than likely though some pyseudo QE3 would come into play helping a rally thesis. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
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</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Analyze Capital LLC</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Http://AnalyzeCapital.com</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
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