You got to diversify your bonds....

Ok I know this is another reblog I got from the Big Picture, but this is something I couldn't pass up... too funny!



"Wu Tang Financial <--- click here for video"





I didn't say it but... Smith Barney are buncha what? enjoy and have a good day!



-Alex

Equity Update: 11.08.09

The SGP/MRK conversion went through, I am know an owner of MRK. I'll get some analysis up as soon as I get some down time.

** on a side note there is a high possibility that SPX 1100 will be retested. Which would mean my previous call on SPX topping out before 1100 might not be true.

** Upcoming reports:

• Atlanta, San Fran, and Chicago Fed Presidents will be speaking.


• Red Book - consumer confirmation??


• The gap day from labor day will be interesting to see how this pause will affect markets as the jobless claims come out.


• fed balance sheet


• US trade Gap


• consumer sentiment

It can be a bouncy week sentiment wise. Check your sentiment indicators, good luck to all you risk loving people playing the markets right now.

-Alex

Econ Update: Current Situation - 11.08.09

Calculated Risk Blog <-- click here

Here is an excellent Reblog on the Health of the Economy.

Any data from the auto industry as we all know is just skewed from cash for clunkers.

That Jobs chart is super interesting. The whole demand side of the economy seems to be missing. The best part is that PPI and CPI numbers the past few months/quarters have been relatively tame. This definitely gives Fed policy leeway for any non-traditional programs needed to keep liquidity in the systems in order to maintain the financial sector on a semi life support (ie mainly quantitative easing), and in order to fix this job's mess.

In addition, looking at the increased bankruptcy in non-US business shows an interesting picture of the weaker end consumers.

The upcoming holiday seasons will for surely be telltale of consumer behavior trends (whether they have changed or not, or if they are on a rebound).



Based off this data, one can make their respective plays for the dollar/equity/commodity markets... but more on that later.

Trader Personality Test

Trading Personality Test <--- Click here

Here is something interesting Pat sent along to me; this will only take 5 mins or so... Try it out! Here are my results:

SPX Morning Update: 11.05.09

Im not one to beat chests or anything but here were my forecast from last week:

Forecast 11.01.09 <-- click here>

and

Forecast on 11.02.09 <--- click here>


so the decision?

I took some cash positions already with a 1.6%+ pop to the upside on the SPX this morning.

My C Position was closed out awhile ago in the low 4 range and I will be looking to re-enter for a very short term frame as momentum and support point to the upside I await for more indicator confirmation and will play it conservative as my aggressive and risk management lacking style cost me a relatively small lost (and overall was a good trade turned bad due to a poor disciplined approach). Ill be sure to be aware of my time frame this time and apply the appropriate stop losses and calculate my risk reward ratios.

My SGP died and became MRK ...... but not quite yet totally. Overall my SGP play ended up higher but on the lower side. I should have went out all cash instead of profit taking while prices were in the low 29 range; though I thought the FTC would take much longer to approve the merger. Overall this has been my best equity trade in terms of profit performance over short and long term.

So right now I await my core index holdings to break even or go slightly positive to avoid a tax fiasco so i can make a much more dynamic portfolio.

-Alex

SPX - Update 11.02.09 - Technical Play

Bears and the Bulls fought hard today with no clear winner. Though the short term bull picture remains some what intact; though mounting bear evidence is making me question the strength. Things are looking very similar to June 09 where prices broke below support before breaking the new resistance of 950 back in the July rally. If price patterns do repeat, we will see a retracement to the upside that will most likely fail to revisit 1100, and fall back down below breaking 1030 support within the next 2 - 3 months (one can calculate percentages from June's moves to estimate price targets).

July 09 Action vs Now:




So is this beginning of the end?:



For those calling the top at 1100, I would not be so rash. Confirmation of a bear trend will have to be seen with a break in 1000 - 1030 resistance along with new 50 RSI resistance and MACD re-visiting former lows seen from the end of 08 and the end of February 09. Though with that in mind, the last 3 pullbacks to the down side seen in Aug and Sept were on a much smaller scale indicating the current 1100 level has much more psychological weight than the previous lighter resistances.

Like I said before, I don't like to call tops when a bull picture is still somewhat intact, but with a long term falling RSI along with a falling MACD with widening channels indicates mounting bear evidence. All these indicators do not show any bullish divergence/convergence.

So what remains of the bulls? Higher highs and higher lows and perfect SMA formation. What is messing up the picture is the price action interacting with the 50 SMA. If this Perfect SMA formation of longer averages under shorter averages (50 vs 100 vs 200) experience cross overs I will be more bearish across shorter time frames.

I will wait for a pullback to the upside and mostly go in cash to play it safe in the short term.

----

** on a side note: upcoming dollar weakness may confirm the temporary pullback to the upside. Play the lead... Play the lead...

Morning Equity Update - 11.02.09

"Early Morning Short Covering; The close of today will be key; so will the close of this Friday; Watch that 1030 Resistance on the SPX. I expect dollar weakness within the next two weeks after this dollar correction we saw to the upside."

-Alex