Where is Miss Cleo?- 12.18.2009

The Dark_Trader Took a bit of a hit yesterday. Currently, I am short Nat Gas and long Citi. I am encouraged by today's action, and the charts confirm my positions. It now becomes a waiting game. Though, my sentiment has yet to change. I am currently examining the fundamentals of S&D on the Nat Gas trade to see if I can find any underlying indicators.

C is undervalued at these levels. Regardless if the financial system tanks C will be bailed out. Also, the street sold off the stock after an under-priced equity offering. Hence, it may take more time to exit the Troubled Asset Relief Program. I will continue to exam Citi's financial statements as well as weekly charts with my colleague Alex. This is what he had to say on October 30th when evaluating his position:

"Overall 3rd quarter fundamentals will prove to shine better in 4th quarter. C will be a better hold on the longer term out."

My sentiments to a T.



Patrick M. Ambrus
Analyze Capital LLC
Managing Partner
ambrus.anlzgroup@gmail.com

FX Daily Curreny Update: 12.18.09

After taking a few big hits on the EUR, I'm getting a better feel for the current conditions after a prolonged absences. Often it can be quite beneficial for a swing play to take an initial hit to establish the correct direction of the trend.

From a swing perspective, many of the major pairs are starting to look attractive for short term plays (short USD: 1-3 week). I will be waiting for further strength of the dollar, and waiting for more indicator and trend confirmation across the board before considering any shorts on the USD.

Pairs I am now considering:

GBP
AUD
JPY
AUD

and I have to reassess the EUR, but based on correlation I might as well add it to the list.



---

Alexander Lê
Analyze Capital LLC
Managing Partner
email: le.alex48@gmail.com

Gold Women Sheep: Hedge your Bets Kids - 12.18.09

Gold, Women and Sheep... You pick I'll leave my judgment out of this one for professional's sake.



** On a side note:

I maybe "diversifying" into one of the latter after taking a HUGE hit on the EUR. At this point I must admit complete utter defeat on this trade. Its times like these that makes a trader's job hard as to wait for a pull back and take a slight lost which entails risking further lost OR Cutting losses now.

Common Mistakes of young traders:

cutting profits too early and holding on to loosing trades for too long.

Even with this in mind Im seeing a test at 1.42 which should hopefully hold, where I can catch a slight whipsaw minimizing lost. I do have a tight stop below support levels.


----

Alexander Lê
Analyze Capital LLC
Managing Partner
email: le.alex48@gmail.com

How Corporate America Works: Bankers > President?? - John Stewart Reports - 12.16.09

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart	Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c
Clusterf#@k to the Poor House - Flight Delay
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show Full Episodes Political Humor Health Care Crisis

Lloyd Blankfein, John Mack, Richard Parsons Ditch on Obama



LOL



Enjoy, we all can use a laugh in times of high uncertainty and stress.







-





Alexander Lê

Analyze Capital LLC

Managing Partner

email: le.alex48@gmail.com

UNG - Nat Gas - Technical Notes - 12.16.09

Red Box = Bearish note
Blue Box = Bullish note

(mind the time frames are different on each box: email me for clarification, don't have time to explain each point at the moment)







I put my technical notes above on natural gas. You tally the points up and you make your thesis.

Ill say this though. Short to mid term it will be hard to justify a long (perhaps look to fundamental reasons seasonality, supply/demand factors...for justification).On a technical basis the evidence isn't there for a long in those time frames.

Short term (of a few weeks) says prices down. Though looking at shorter and longer frames shows evidence of a trend change.

The other day XOM bought out XTO. Now that is very hard to ignore fundamentally. Overall, natural gas has monster bullish potential monthly-quarterly basis into 2010.

But anyway here's my tally:





AC and The Lord of trading traders will be having a Natural Gas discussion soon here --> Natural Gas Discussion (click here)

and now back to studies for finals!


-----

Alexander Lê
Analyze Capital LLC
Managing Partner
email: le.alex48@gmail.com

Trading Game Update: 12.15.09

The game hasn't updated its end day results.

• As you can see I am down, which is explained by my previous post.
  
  
• Pat is currently locked in a energy trade.
  
  
• Clark has yet to open up a trade, though it is most likley he will trade tech equities.

If you wish to join the game short me an email. Cash prize will be awarded.


-----

Alexander Lê
Analyze Capital LLC
Managing Partner
email: le.alex48@gmail.com

FXE trade: jumping the gun - 12.15.09

As my friend "Sauros" <--- click here pointed out; I am playing a dangerous game. I am trying to catch the whipsaw while long on the EUR.

It seems for 3 straight trading days FXE has gaped down against me. Luckily I am not using a leveraged FX pair and only exposed to the general trend so my lost is at a minimal. But, Id hate to imagine it what it would be like on an open fx leveraged trade.

It seems that the EUR participants are factoring in more US econ data, a fundamental valuation perhaps is changing. This is the third significant gap down day of dollar up SPX up.

After reviewing a long chart, Perhaps Sauros is correct in being short longer term out on the EUR. The full discussion can be found here: " THE LORD OF TRADING <----

Looking at the first 3 year chart we see 50 support on the RSI has held throughout this entire rally. Perhaps this is a foreshadowing that equities are due for a correction? But ... Perhaps not, as we have been seeing dollar up/down and SPX still goes up. There is an inherent bias for us equity markets. And what is this underlying factor?

USD safe haven and confidence and that the US Fed will back up the US if the safe haven fails.


Either way my trading notes can be found on the charts above...

I am expecting a retrace back to 1.48 range and will reassess the fundamental factors to see if this is indeed a long term trend change or if this is just an interim correction.


-----

Alexander Lê
Analyze Capital LLC
Managing Partner
email: le.alex48@gmail.com