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Wednesday, September 26, 2007

Entry for September 27 (night)

The S&P 500 will dip slightly and continue upward. The dip extending to the lower trading channel around 1500 and may whipsaw to around 1490, and continue upward. Volume and momentum confirm this. Actually upon further analysis the MACD and RSI actually point to a failing in momentum. It appears as if resistance will win over leading to no break through. This will probably mean, a whipsaw will really be leading to a downward movement to support of the closest being 1500. Also to confirm this is the crossover of 100 SMA over the 50 SMA. This is only a legitimate indicator because it is standard with most packages and many investors just use it as a gauge to see what the non institutional investors are making their decisions of. Stripping away all the indicators though, sticking with simplicity with what usually works for some, the upward stepping pattern is bullish, only thing to worry about is if their is enough momentum to break resistance and continue with out all the people taking gains. Based off this simple analysis, i think that's what has happened in the pas, every time the S&P500 approached new resistance levels the peak was reached and the a slip dip occurred due to profit takers but people jumped right on the bull train. So despite all the indicators leading to a more bearish tone, i can't but help feel my gut says other wise. The US domestic equities are still seen as a viable financial capital investment, supporting this idea is the interest rates, today the interest rates yields continued to go up slightly, but i feel this move will soon come to a pause and reverse slightly. Though i need more time to research this matter.

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