Jobless Claims:

Interesting news today on the labor market. It appears that the loosening of the job markets may have been a fluke in the previous month. I think this report can only be substantiated with more labor economic reports. If as Bernake claims there are to be more turmoils in the market and if there is a consensus on wall street that supprime and credit problems are not over, people should expect the job market to continue to remain not as strong. I wouldn't be surprised to find a rise in unemployment. Though I don't expect significant changes in the labor market. Today the Dollar continued to further plummet against the euro, i can only expect that this weak dollar will be benifcial for the economy. I would expect to see an increase of manufacturing, and following a labor market that won't signficantly fluctuate. As i expect housing and the credit problem will take a while to sort itself out. This will leave a lingering taste of uncertainity in the mouth world investors, spectulators and traders. Because of this the dollar shuold not expect some extreme rally. Though if housing does in improve or a solid bottom is forseen, one can expect the dollar to return to an upward trend. But, all this rambling has its point, that if all these conditions are as stated, the logic shuld follow though i can be very wrong and this analysis may seem very simplifed and amateuristic...

supprime, credit problems and media should maintaing a --> Weak dollar --> good for exports ---> more manufacturing --> job opportunity --> nice tight labor market --> happy people (pending inflation) ---> consumer that will drive this economy at a decent pace...

though obviously housing will still be taking a decent chunk out of the GPD. I mean this is not even factoring in inflation and the other 459864905689 things that can happen.

The Lead Economic Indicator:

Contrasting today's good news on the Job situation was the downward movement of the Lead Economic Indicator. It is no wonder the domestic equity indexes experience a mixed to down day. I really need to look further into this economic indicator, I mean if the bond market can ignore and my beloved media glorify it... how legitimate is this. I mean its not like this any new news. It no surprise that the economy is not bustling, Though the move in equity trading is more relevant to this, so i guess one can attribute it in part to the downward moves seen today. But, it is not like this should be new news overall on the economy. I could have told you that the economy poised to not do as well as the we all hope...

it is as almost as if people these days relay on these indicators as the Word of God without doing any legitimate research themselves...

I feel this indicator is not an indication of a reversal/turning point or a pending recession (though recession is still very possible despite whatever the has done)... isn't this a lagging indicator anyway?