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Thursday, December 31, 2009

Happy New Years!



On behalf of Analyze Capital LLC

Happy New Years !

Looking forward to the best of 2010 and great success!



----

Alexander Lê
Managing Partner
Analyze Capital LLC
email: le.alex48@gmail.com

Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Daily Currency Update: 12.30.09

CAD - UP
AUS - UP

GBP - DOWN
EUR - DOWN
JPY - DOWN


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Corr's:

Oil - Down
Equities(SPX) - Down
Gold - Down

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Im getting the feeling of four distinct fundamental regional differences among the major pairs vs the dollar.

AUS region moving on Asian/Commodity fundamentals (AKA mostly Chinese demand story)

CAD's contraian move vs the other pairs is due to domestic growth prospects from domestic and foreign activities

EUR and GBP are linked to the monetary/economic story along with the US

and

JPY, like CAD is due to local economic health.




Fundamentals seem to show that correlations are on the down slope of the curve (double check via simple HRA bloomy corr graphs). If this is true we will see correlation relationships bending over the next few months.


-----

Alexander Lê
Managing Partner
Analyze Capital LLC
email: le.alex48@gmail.com

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****note from management****




The managing partners are currently abroad extending networks across the UK, Japan, and Eastern Europe.


We apologize ahead of time for the slow responses to blog comments and lack of posts. Though come mid January we will resume the normal schedule and updates.



-----


If there are any urgent matters forward emails to one of the partners:


Analyze Capital LLC
Managing Partners
Alexander Lê: le.alex48@gmail.com
Pat Ambrus: ambrus.anlzgroup@gmail.com
Clark Chu: zhuzihao@googlemail.com

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Trading Game Contest Update: 12.29.09




Jet lagged out of my mind, so might as well do some work...

Looks like the markets are going against everyone who is actively trading. The cash holders/non-traders are still in the lead with Dextor and Clark leading once again.

Trrodeli

Surprisingly in third place the underdog trrodeli is holding down third place. This is probably a reflection of his diversified portfolio over 4 equities of INTC, BAC, GE and NKE. Having four industry distinct equities may have helped him reduce the volatility in his portfolio.

On a technical picture, it seems GE and BAC are against him short term. While NKE and INTC have potential for breakout stocks (breaking of resistence) to the upside in a short time frame (1-2 weeks). Overall this may leave his portfolio at the same levels as they are now over the next few weeks.

Mico4578


In fourth place Mico has a small amount of capital in NVDA. Overall, on a technical basis NVDA has potential to garner profits, however in the short term it is in mid correction and will be hurting Mico performance in the interim. For the given time frame, if Mico wishes to increase his risk he could invest more in NVDA or create some more tech oriented plays involving peers or competitors.


lealex48

In fifth place I finally have made a right call in my position correcting itself. 200 SMA is acting as beautiful support. I don't expect this to be a smooth correction. It is tempting to cut my losses now as I have recovered 50%+ of my losses at this point and reassessing new entry points. But in the short term my system analysis is telling me price momentum is to the upside in the short term.

I will try and watch the charts closes and avoiding another trading disaster such as my "C" <-- (click here)> trade from the last game.


Dark_Trader


It looks like the Dark traders C position is starting to correct itself. Just like my EUR position, entry timing was poor. Both trades could have been vastly improved with more careful technical entry analysis.

Overall, though short term is starting to look attractive. I see prices having room to the upside to 3.72 before encountering resistance. Which means Dark_Trader may recover 100% profits and may make a 7.5% profit. Unfortunately the C position is only about 13% of the value of the portfolio.

His major position of UNG moved further against him from 10.68 (when I last reported) to 10.85 on a short position. However, short term the picture is slowly starting to correct, though I still believe a bit of room to the upside (via RSI). All in all, it is possible he can recover 90% of his trade to the low 10's when UNG corrects, the big question is if he believes prices can break below 50 day SMA. If not perhaps this is a bottom for nat gas? (watch the higher highs). If prices break below support perhaps he can end up in profit though the odds are against him on the technical side or are at least more to the ambiguous side.



So there are your update brief trading technical tips:






"May the trade be with you"





-----

Alexander Lê
Analyze Capital LLC
Managing Partner
email: le.alex48@gmail.com

-----

****note from management****



The managing partners are currently abroad extending networks across the UK, Japan, and Eastern Europe.


We apologize ahead of time for the slow responses to blog comments and lack of posts. Though come mid January we will resume the normal schedule and updates.



-----


If there are any urgent matters forward emails to one of the partners:


Analyze Capital LLC
Managing Partners
Alexander Lê: le.alex48@gmail.com
Pat Ambrus: ambrus.anlzgroup@gmail.com
Clark Chu: zhuzihao@googlemail.com

Sunday, December 27, 2009

Management Announcment 12.27.09

The managing partners are currently abroad extending networks across the UK, Japan, and Eastern Europe.


We apologize ahead of time for the slow responses to blog comments and lack of posts. Though come mid January we will resume the normal schedule and updates.



-----


If there are any urgent matters forward emails to one of the partners:


Analyze Capital LLC
Managing Partners
Alexander Lê: le.alex48@gmail.com
Pat Ambrus: ambrus.anlzgroup@gmail.com
Clark Chu: zhuzihao@googlemail.com

Friday, December 25, 2009

Happy Holidays and New Years


On behalf of everyone at Analyze Capital LLC, we all would like to wish our readers, followers, and fellow lord traders a very warm happy holidays and new years.



A big thanks to all of you who helped us get us this far and best wishes as we all forge on into a new prosperous 2010!





"MAY THE TRADE BE WITH YOU"




----

Alexander Lê
Analyze Capital LLC
Managing Partner
email: le.alex48@gmail.com

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

Contest Update for 12.22.09



Lealex48

This is for the 22nd where yesterday major pairs were down against the dollar. Today it is the opposite with Dollar down (equities up) with a positive net change.

It is starting to show that I am slowly recovering losses. It is most likely that this trade will result in a small lost.

(Entry FXE: 146 to lows of 142 and now back around 143).

Dark_Trader

Dark_Trader is still struggling with his C position where he bought in at 3.46 and prices are now at 3.27. I had much trouble with C over a long term last trading game, so I opted not to trade this since this game's time frame is much longer and I am on partial vacation. Trading C requires much more needed vigilance from my experience.

In terms of his UNG trade it is also going against him currently (short entry at 10.08 and current at 10.68). It seems prices are being supported by short term 50 SMA interaction. Overall, there is a high probability that prices will fail and break below the 50 SMA if Nat Gas is still in a down trend. The issues is I see the prices being supported for at least another 1 to 2 weeks.

Dextor and ClarkChu

Both are leading with strong cash positions. But this won't be enough to get ahead of others for this contest in the given time frame like last game.




If you wish to join the game shoot me an email. Cash prize will be awarded.


-----

Alexander Lê
Analyze Capital LLC
Managing Partner
email: le.alex48@gmail.com

Daily Currency Brief: 12.23.09

Today I will consider entry for shorting the dollar against major pairs for a short time frame 1-2 weeks or more depending on what the charts tell me. I have to double check my indicators and systems. Overall the EUR seems to be the most volatile at a glance though I feel the major pairs are correlating off US fundamentals.


At these levels I have recovered about 50% of my losses on the EUR. A reversion back to a mean. The question is which mean are we following now? Lots of evidence (evidence of strong volume confirmation and short term SMA downward pressure) points to a trend change so I will considering cutting losses if my technical setup indicates and quick moves to the downside, if prices continue to correct to the upside. The problem is the markets are very volatile and have high probability to getting trumped by fundamentals.

This will be a very delicate play with light volume going into holiday season.

----

Alexander Lê
Analyze Capital LLC
Managing Parnter
email: le.alex48@gmail.com
 
Disclaimer
This Blog has been developed by Analyze Capital LLC, and as an independent organization we provide “AS IS” information without warranty. The ideas and opinions expressed by the contributers of this blog are personal and do not represent the actions or policies of Analyze Capital LLC. The contents of this blog do not intend to assert recommendations or to offer advice of any kind. We are not responsible the consequences, be they gains or losses, that may result from using any of the information from this blog.