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Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Monday, May 23, 2011

Market Observations May 23, 2011

  • Crude consolidating back on the low side 97 range. Fundamental estimates have up to 107 upside range. Huge drop on open (Friday to Sunday) vs Friday huge drop on US equity open. 
  • Dollar index indicates possible resistance - watch dollar weakness reversals on majors. Major pairs shows break through on many significant support/resistance levels in favor of dollar strength. Trend seems to be strong dollar. 
  • NatGas floating above 4 still - solid support

Friday, May 20, 2011

May 19 - 20 Trades 2011



Not bad on the whole. This week quite positive. The EUR/USD situation really caught me with my pants off. Didn't expect sentiment to reign so hard at the end of the week.

The GBP/USD was a great contrarian play, 1.60 support was key in my decision and I knew it would hold. CL Amazing volatility in the early morning seeing 3.00 down moves. Having stops too tight would have resulted in larger losses than I intended... something really I need to ponder on.

NatGas really saved me along with the NZD/USD. To be honest the NZD/USD trade is something I am aiming longer term for, while NatGas was a short term play. Again support was a key decision for my play on Nat gas after long week of bearish pressure.

RBOB was interesting to trade. I didnt' like the illiquid moves and mis pricing that occurred during the short time frame. The leverage seems a bit confusing and overall the trading very spotty. I may try to continue to trade it on the paper trader but over all I am not sure I would make this a regular trade.

My ES and SPY trades were great this week. Early in the week I caught the leg up and closed out and turned around and caught the leg down for the short. SPY offered no leverage at 100 shares, ES provided better leverage despite it being a mini. It has a very comfortable leverage and velocity path.

USD/JPY I didn't catch any liquidity at the end of the week. NKD also was a bad idea trading end week as many of the Asian traders just gave up after all the bad news. Perhaps buying in on Sunday might be a good idea after last weeks pummeling.
 
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