Goldman Sachs up 79% 0_O
|3-Month||12/13/2007||3.88 / 3.99||0.01 / -.000||09/14|
|6-Month||03/13/2008||4.05 / 4.20||0.01 / -.000||09/14|
|2-Year||4.000||08/31/2009||99-29½ / 4.04||0-00 / .000||09/14|
|3-Year||4.500||05/15/2010||101-03+ / 4.05||0-00 / -.000||09/14|
|5-Year||4.125||08/31/2012||99-24+ / 4.17||0-00 / .000||09/14|
|10-Year||4.750||08/15/2017||102-09+ / 4.46||0-00 / -.000||09/14|
|30-Year||5.000||05/15/2037||104-14 / 4.72||0-00 / -.000||09/14|
12:47 09/05/07 (bloomberg).
Interesting the dollar strengthened a bit from 113.906 9/12/07 8:00 am.
the euro seems to be holding its own, the the dollar barely appreciating vs it.
I had predicted earlier that this move in the markets would help exports and possible the trade deficit, one of the problems Greenspan addressed in his book, but he was projecting way in the futures and I'm sure the dollar would normalize by then so my argument vs that would not be relevant. Either way, with more exports it has to be positive for GDP another reason for why Fed should not cut.
I have been following futures more so, but will try to talk more about them tomorrow, i also need to look into the domestic equity indexes... But for another day...
WOW, talk about a selling frenzy... Well it appears everyone is in panick mode and those nifty computer programs are probably going berserk. I guess bearish would have been the right call last time i checked. Though people are already looking for signs of strength, which now would be a good time. An economic calender would be essential around now. Hopefully a few good economic reports and we will be back on our way up. Amazing how the bonds are where they started a while ago during the school year and previous summer etc...
Interestingly the dollar weakend against the yen, which makes sense considering this situation of the markets. The euro weakend against the dollar though. Fundamentally i can not see why though it is quite possible the euro has lost momentum.
when i get home from school i will look into this more.
It is hard to be anything but a bear right now, all things considering the huge sell off in the equity indicies accompanied by the huge spikes in volume. All things considered, i do not think this to be a full fledged reversal. People were waiting for the dow to hit 14,000 and start shorting, i believe short covering shall take affect around the 1490's on the s&p 500, though the dow has slightly a little more room to fall before hitting support. A couple of lower highs, and we will be back on the bull wagon. Though the technical evidence compells me to say otherwise. If i do not see volume decreasing significantly to support my latter thesis, i would only have the choice to be bearish. A lot of bad news sited in the media are only temporary movers, though like i said before, housing should have been no surprise, but it is only natural that it is. Self full filling prophecies seem to be what everyones is into these days... \
The bond markets seem to be finally hitting a one way trend. For what reason are people buying into bonds now. The inversion of the yield curve would have been more significant, if it hadn't been inverted for so long prior to this one. Fear of Fed cuts, bearish market sentiment, poor economy news reports, bode well for the bond market. I had not expected it to drop this much, apparently, there are greater forces at work that i must discern before commenting further.
Today markets again, are acting predictably. I believe for the equity indexes to trade around this range some time before continuing an upward trend. Considering the technology woes with weak earnings reports, the nasdaq is not lagging significantly at the start of the day. Though, technology stocks and the ^soxx are suffering. Despite Bernake's statement about subprime losses i expect, by now people have already hedged positions, or the markets priced in such losses. As we can see today the markets are reacting to other news such as M&A action, Strong earnings reports, and steady economy. More specifically having a tight labor market. Most interestingly Bonds are reacting to housing statements made by Bernake, as the dollar strengthend agaisnt the euro and yen. It is no doubt that housing is a drag, but not enough so far to choke the economy, there is in my opinion, no reason for the Feds to raise rates at this point. This is quite possible we will be on hold if the economy keeps up, and housing keeps dragging through the next year.
I would like to note, about early on my poisition on energy specifically oil, it is often a newbie as myself, gets to intangled with his own ideas and ignores what is actually happening, It is perhaps as i said in my Eton Park entry, that summer seasonality is still holding strong, and i when writing my report already missed the slight down turn. I expect oil to stay in the mid 70's range until people start pricing in for the upcoming winter. (oil referencing to light sweet crude).
The Dow not able to hit 14,000 today, though again, all a matter of time now. When the Dow does hit, it will psychologically be bullish causing more upward momentum or depending on the sentiment of the time, might cause people to start taking profits on long positions. Most likely when breaking through a slight pause or even a slight dip before continuing upward again.
Ahead of the PPI, expectations for inflation to be slowing, i would expect inflation to be either the same or slightly higher. Though i would expect the core PPI in general to be the same. The markets might be caught off guard, this might be a good opportunity to set up some short positions, or hedge against long positions further.
Like i said before the Dow is a more psychological influence if anything, looking at the S&P today and the FTSE, both indexes are pausing or pricing for the upcoming events.
It is also possible that good earnings reports will add to further bullishness.
Though despite all my bullishness, in the back of my head lurking, i can't help but get the feeling i should start looking for more signs of weakness...