Monday, October 7, 2013

BBRY - Update 2013

Called it


  • Price rapidly approaching buy zone. Another 1.50+ off  and I think its fair game to buy
  • Unlikely deals will sour unless management is that bad... given company performance perhaps it wouldn't' be surprising if they did
  • I think other exits are unlikely and they will be forced to sell cheap
  • Negative scrutiny from MSFT NOK deal
  • Lots of short term pressures to see price go further down = better value in buy once deal goes through

Monday, September 30, 2013

GIS - OCT 1 2013

Old chart from last week - 3 year weekly chart

Lets look at the long term chart and top down fundamentals:
  • Strong strong trend past 3 years
  • Long term chart says correction needed
  • Likely correction longer term out
  • 60% of top line from US --> how is consumption in staples?
  • How are commodities prices? Is there pressure? If pressure what spill over can we expect?
  • Inflation indicates probably no price pressure, Fed confirms with policy (however there are divergences from individual commos markets to equities, must look more carefully)
  • How is growth expansion abroad? Can GIS diversify revenue further?
It would be nice to see longer historical price trends. No thoughts no calls, no HW done.

Saturday, September 21, 2013

Rambling Thoughts

I love the divergence of equities and commodities seen from 2012 and 2013. Break from historical correlation leaves rooms for many ways to make more money and a more interesting dynamic to look at. Time to start looking back at fx and commos again.

PCLN - Sept 21 2013 - 3 Year Weekly Chart

  • Look at this awesome trend
  • We are looking for a 10 - 15% correction at these levels
  • Buy on big correction --> very possible can get a strong second leg of dumb money going up after correction
  • Risk to thesis - interesting volume action August 2012
  • Lack of strong volume confirmation on last leg
  • Above risk probably indicative of correction as mentioned above

  • Look to fundamentals to confirm despite irrational exuberance

AMZN Update - Sept 21 2013

  • Close above break in resistance = confirmation of healthy trend
  • Conservative look for a few days closes around 320+

BBRY - Sept 21 2013

  • Looking very good for buyout candidate
  • Easy to get on cheap valuations
  • Definitely entries at or below historical support from 1 year go (sept 2012)
  • Company needs to be revamped
  • New strategy sounds desperate and little add value and even if it works it has limited upside to profits unless they cut beyond current plans...

Tuesday, September 10, 2013

SYMC update 9/10/2013

  • I remember from back in 2006 that SYMC responds well to technicals
  • Overall SYMC is a shit stock from what I understood
  • However, despite any bad fundamentals strong technicals could prevail in the short term
  • Gaps like this usually don't lie and is in tact with overall recent uptrend ( see below)
  • Break in resistance, profit covering --> back to support
  • We looking at green buy zone
Nice, trend dude:

  • Given the nature of the STRONG trend from June last year... its possible the above scenario would need to be a short term buy. Enough to get you over 27 for sure. 
  • If you believe in Waves, this trend looks like its going to collapse
  • Short term buy
  • Watch closely to catch the first leg of shorts

Friday, September 6, 2013

MSFT update SEP 6 2013

Shallow thoughts:

  • Smart money is gone now which begs...
  • Is Ballmer leaving really a fundamentally good thing for the company?
  • If yes, buy at support or below support because its value realized over a longer period?
Look to longer picture for technical buys...

Very interesting gaps. Strong volume gap down, strong volume gap up however couldn't breach resistance. Again, look for longer term plays here. Looks like of sideways roller-coastering from here in the short to medium term. 

Friday, August 23, 2013

5 Month Laters AMZN - AUG 23 2013


My only and best call for 2013.

See quote from Post: "AMZN Update April 2nd 2013 Update"

"If support can hold up trend still in tact = Buy in 240-250's range. Depending on how strong conviction is or trading style (waiting for confirmation on up swing, pre-emp buy in before move, scale in slowly pyramid up on confirmation). "


Buy in at 240 - 250 was the correct zone to buy in. The trend materialized one month later in May for the buy zone and unfolded through MAY --> JUNE --> JULY. Finally, the short term trend peaked out in the 310 range making about a 20 - 30% gain on price from buy in zone to peak.

Hell, the trend still looks healthy to me. However, we are exploring uncharted areas in the 300+ range. Fundamentally is AMZN sound? I dunno, but management still remains strong and if the core values are still there we should continue to see continued long term uptrend.

No comments on current correction in play. Possible pyramiding area if you buy into the continued up trend in the short term... hell look at the S&P500 this past year. Crazy stuff. (remind me to not say this is a call... NO BACK TRADING... more of light observations)


Longer long term view... hmmm, get that gut feeling that internet is going to be another bubble either that theres just too much possible collapsable focus in the space despite there seemingly being more grounded reasons to be in internet vs. circa 99 - 00's ...

Saturday, April 6, 2013

Good Read

Interesting read highlighting fundamentals investment mindsets vs not so explicit trading mindsets.  Knowing a truth doesn't mean a trade materialize in that truthful direction. No one sees markets in 20/20 vision.

The whole MLM aspect too was interesting in that such a strong fundamental view coming from Ackman failed to capture the many different types of people involved in the Herbalife business. His viewpoint comes from a very high level one track mindset.

I've been to a few Amway meetings, and they try to recruit like cults. The average person involved in distribution for an MLM most probability won't know or care what some Fat Cat Hedgie guy thinks or says. MLM's run on a faith type system and highlight the 1% Ackman highlights as successful, as a norm or something to aspire too. Reinforcement, and self-fulfilling yumminess.

Hope and faith are a powerful thing. Powerful enough to trump any short plays. The only question is how long can Ackman's billions last until the margin calls ring in...

Who knows, maybe he will get lucky like that time Robertson sat on a metals position for more than 5 years to claim he was "right" on the trade after it moved in the desired direction...

When you are well funded, its easier to sit on tougher positions.

Tuesday, April 2, 2013

AMZN Update April 2nd 2013 Update

Jan 24 my last comments on AMZN --> HERE

Jan 24:

  • High - 276.65
  • Low - 269.37
  • CLOSE -273.62
Technical perspective very interesting. Jan 24 candle indicative of failing bullish momentum, confirmed with next day failed gap above previous high with lack of volume confirmation (20/20 hindsight)

Followed by lovely volume confirmation of next few days correction. 

March 21 Close - 253.39

From Jan 24th Close to March 21st close = 7.4% correction from last call Jan 24th

10% correction from the close of 24th would = 246.25
15% correction from the close of 24th would = 232.57

If my analysis from the 24th is correct we will see 200day SMA support with price noise piercing below 200SMA changes. True support should hold with close above 200 SMA. 

If support can hold up trend still in tact = Buy in 240-250's range. Depending on how strong conviction is or trading style (waiting for confirmation on up swing, pre-emp buy in before move, scale in slowly pyramid up on confirmation). 


Above very linear analysis pure chart no comparison. 

Some interesting notes look at various time frames of AMZN vs $COMP and $SPX 


Volume on Jan 29th not so different from high volume seen in 2012 during other major corrections (mid sep - mid nov 2012). 

If volume from 24th is consistent with last years trend, bullish picture still very much in tact. However, watch short term price movements and support carefully to see if volume kills bullish scenario with much lower than expected price moves.


Looking at short term picture. Amazon significantly out performed SPX and COMP for the first two months. By the end of the third month prices converged already (would have made for interesting pairs trade scenario if one was aware). 

In terms of index performance, the first month COMP outperformed SPX slightly. By the end of the second month SPX caught up, and starting from the third month SPX started to greatly outperform COMP. 

The question is how indicative is the 30 day price performance for the short term going forward?

IF as I suspect long term trend is up, price convergence should be bullish. Prices should correct further to stated above and we can expect higher highs. Given the recent performance of SPX, COMP and AMZN would have to play catch up, and SPX lag a little. Perhaps there can be some fundamental evidence found for this? 

However, if longer term picture is more relevant, AMZN/COMP need to correct significantly relative to SPX performance from 2009.

From 2009:

  • AMZN prices are 300%+ higher
  • COMP prices are 40%+ higher
  • SPX prices are 20% higher

This being said though, more than often or not, human perception of technicals in such a long time frame to interpret something relevant is difficult as fundamentals become more important in such time frames. 

Though as perhaps is still true, post 2008 crisis, macro environment can trump fundamentals easily...


Another interesting signal may be all this M&A spike and big move in equities past year... Bubblicious or indicative? Perhaps for another post.

Thursday, January 24, 2013

AMZN Jan 24, 2013

Beginning to believe a 10-15% correction needed for a good healthy correction for AMZN to end positive this year. Trend and momentum still favor up.

Anything beyond 15%+ changes trend changer.

Will dig in the financials to see whats in store for the year.

Monday, January 21, 2013

AMZN - JAN 2013

I was looking at AMZN back in NOV/DEC 2012. I'm not really a stock guy but looking purely on technicals here. Though in general after some venture building experience stocks do suddenly make more sense after all. Its something I could probably understand with time. Some of those fundamentals that were drilled into me back in 2006 make more sense.

All in all though with current scale, don't think its still the game for me unless I played some futures, but then again never the same liquidity I'd be looking that I could get in currencies or commodities at better leverage.

Over this year I'll re examine the basic and see if I can make any interesting plays, may be play some long term investment oriented ideas over trades and vice versa.

In general, after having a WHOLE blank year I think it would be good to clean the slate and reformulate strategy. Study some history and see if I can make a better product this year...

Off the tangent...

AMZN looks amazing on the chart long term, 5 year and Max. 5 Year steady trend. If I learned anything its really hard playing the long term trends as the path to up is very confusing and tricky from 5 - 10% volatility jumps. Sometimes those fundamentals will really kill you when information was never clear and present as well... 180 degrees thesis killer.

I would make this call as of January based of basic eye balling...

buy into the dip within the first quarter. Trend should still be strong through out 2013. The stock has amazingly outperformed the market in the past 5 years and I would expect it to continue to do so.

I think from here it would be good to look at putting the fundamental picture together here to fillin the holes and gaps to see if this makes sense as a good long term play.

Previously I was interested in shorting if there were solid closes on the daily below 220 but that never happend with strong SMA support.

In general break up top confirms strong upward momentum with strong gap up in price... the only real bad thing is the lack of volume confirmation.

Again a correction maybe due and hopefully strong fundamental catalyst can kick in to get this trend really going.

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