SPX Update: June 29, 2010

3 month Daily

Technical Notes:

Daily Chart

• Gap down
  
• Extremely long bearish candle (close to a full out marubozu)
  
• Convergence of ST 50 SMA under LT 200 SMA
  
• RSI and MACD confirmation of downward momentum
  

Weekly Chart

Technical Notes:

• RSI and MACD indicate much lower levels - continued downward pressure and moment
  
• inter-temporal resistence confirmation the daily SMA crossover coincides with weekly 50 SMA resistence
  

SUMMARY:

I can be nothing but bearish. Amazing! my price pattern analysis was spot on with the wrong time frames! Markets are moving so rapidly with high amounts of volatility. Taking an except from my EARLIER POST from June 03, 2010 on the SPX:

"Overall Summary:

Given the amount of turmoil in the economy and markets around the world I am leaning towards the Bearish Picture more.

Bull to 1150 (By mid July)
Bear to 1060 (By end of August)
Bear if Support breaks below the 1060 level to 1000"


As you can see I stated in my follow up post in response to my SPX June 03 post, my 1150 call was skewed and wrong because I did not take into account downward pressure would make lower resistance levels from SMA's. I however got the right price pattern to 1060 and if you read on my June 03 post, I was biased towards the bearish side, as in I said it will be more likely to see 1000 before 1200. So far With the break in a possible neckline of the head and shoulder pattern, I've been dead on. Im confident we will see low 1000 levels into July.

The only thing I got wrong was that this is happening a month early.

I will maintain my bearish stance until the respective levels are reached.



---

Alexander Lê
Managing Partner
Analyze Capital LLC
email: le.alex48@gmail.com

Consumer Confidence-06.29.2010

The Conference Board's consumer confidence report is a major disappointment, falling dramatically and showing regional weakness tied no doubt to the Gulf spill. The consumer confidence index fell to 52.9, in a nearly 10 point decline the size of which usually corresponds with an economic shock. The decline was led by severe weakness in the East South Central (37.7 June vs. 56.0 May) and the South Atlantic (49.1 vs. 62.8). But other regions are weak too including significant drops in the Mid-Atlantic and Pacific regions.

Bloomberg.com

Equities are selling off hard. The SPX is currently down below 1047. Can 1040 support hold? I believe so. When it does, I will get long via SPX calls in preparation for a relief rally. The VIX is hovering above 30 for the first time sine the week of June 7th.

Who forecasts these reports anyway? Good luck trading today.


Patrick M. Ambrus
Analyze Capital LLC
ambrus.anlzgroup@gmail.com

Crude and Gold Brief - June 28, 2010

Crude:


Long term:

Daily 1 month


Overall trend says down month to month.

Short term:

Hourly Chart



This week we are seeing the test of significant psychological resistance at 80. Haven't got a chance to look at historical RSI data, but there is a high possibility of a new range of 75 - 80 on to higher levels in an upward trend; Upside is to 86.

This week as the chart indicates, range bound, we will see 75 before 80.


Gold:




Gold is looking topsy. The worse of the sentiment selling may be over and we may see a correction in prices. We should see lower levels into July and August.

Weekly Dollar Update: June 27, 2009

**All credits to FXDAILY.COM for this lovely chart

My take on this chart is that the major pairs are strongly reacting to relative economic health factors as drivers. NZD strong interest rates without the political turmoil of AUS. Fund managers are viewing Japanese equities as very attractive with positive capital flows floating the Yen. The Brits are happy with political fiscal measures and a more positive outlook. From my experience, times of diverging correlations are when we will see new trends are established. Does this mean the bullish dollar trend is over?

---

Here is what I am looking at for the Dollar this week:

Monday 6/28:

• Personal income: expected to rise 0.5% from 0.4%
  
  
• Personal Spending: to rise to 0.1% from 0.0%

Tuesday 6/29:

• Consumer Confidence expected to decrease to 62.5 from 63.3

Wednesday 6/30:

• ADP employment employment change: expected to rise to 60K from 55K

Thursday 7/01:

• ISM manufacturing expected to decrease to 59.0 from 59.7
  
  
• Construction spending survey MoM: expected decrease to -0.6% from 2.7%

Friday 7/02:

• ** Non-Farm Payrolls: an expected decrease to -105K from 431K
  
  
• unemployment rate surve: and expected increase of 9.8% from 9.7%

I'll agree with a number of analyst in the markets that the Dollar is a highly sentiment driven trade at the moment, and is very fickle and subject to large volatility swings. Of course the big question everyone is looking at is if the Dollar has bottomed out and will see weakness for the rest of 2010 or will it resume its bullish 7 month trend. The past week has been certainly encouraging for dollar bears.

Sentiment factors

G20

Eurozone Health

US non-farm payrolls

Chinese credit and monetary policy (yuan floatation)

Nothing new re-iterated here.

I'll say the technicals allow plenty of upside room while the downside is limited to a suppressed price range unless we see exacerbated contagion spreading with the PIIGS. I'm reading more literature on expansionary policy and fiscal contraction, and will report back my opinions later and its relative possible effects on the Dollar and respective pairs.


SUMMARY:


The first few days I will be looking for confirmed bearish US econ data which will confirm a bullish EUR/USD technicals for the week. By then hopefully expectation should be priced in for the US non-farm payrolls. I re-iterate my bearish stance on the EUR/USD for this week which complements my quick technical take given HERE. And to answer the question asked above: as I said before, the downside has become less attractive as sentiment is factored in and the upside becomes more attractive. I will say a significant dollar correction is needed, for a sustained dollar strength. Though I won't comment on if a full out reversal is warranted with such uncertain fundamentals.

However, I will clearly state my short term trading view of bearish on the dollar for this week.

---

Hedging Correlation plays: Short Dollar/Short Crude




PS: Ill be writing again at the end of the weak to assess my performance

________


Alexander Lê
Managing Partner
Analyze Capital LLC
email:analyzecaital@gmail.com

RMB

Summary of Related News:

- The yuan ended Asian trading Tuesday at 6.8136 per dollar, down about 0.23% from its close on Monday, when the currency rose 0.43% to a new high against the dollar after the weekend announcement by the People's Bank of China that it would ease the yuan's nearly two-year-long peg to the U.S. currency.

- The Chinese Ministry of Commerce Department came out with the latest announcement this Friday, June 25th, "the appreciation of RMB will generally have a positive effect on Chinese export industries". The government officer also announced "there would be a slower growth on exporting compare to the first two quarters due to increasing elasticity on RMB".

- On June 25th, Friday, one week after the announcement of a bigger flexibility of RMB to USD, RMB had its highest level of exchange rate ever in the history, 1 USD to 6.7896RMB.

- HK stock market increased as the expectation of RMB appreciation rose, high expectations on Chinese companies for 3rd and 4th quarters, especially state companies

- Former Goldman Sachs Chairman of Great China, Hu Zuliu said in the Financial Forum in Shanghai this week that "there would not be a problem if RMB appreciate for 20% in 2-3 years as long as the basic money reserve keeps".

- Recently, while the US congress advocates the appreciation of RMB, some investors guess China would use the huge Foreign Exchange Reserves that it holds to control the extend to rise

Thoughts:

- Although the Chinese government claims about the appropriateness of the exchange rate of RMB to USD, it should be determined by the basic demand and supply factors of the market. As one of the fastest growing economies in the world, appreciation is definitely necessary, but probably in a much lower pace then most people expected.

- On July 21st, 2005, China had its Exchange Rate Reform, which before the 2008 financial crisis. In a two-year time frame, RMB appreciated for more than 20% against USD. During the Exchange Rate Reform, Chinese economy reached a very strong page, so did the exports, which proved the rose in exchange rate would also be an opportunity for the market, not only a drag

- One of the most considered dilemmas when talking about RMB's appreciation is the effect on Chinese exporting industries. It's true that the price advantage would be taken away immediately because of the increasing exchange rate, but it's true that the importing materials' prices would also decrease largely.

- According to the survey of the exporting companies over south and east coast China, which compares the importing material price effect and exporting price advantage effect, RMB's appreciation actually reduces the cost of production. If it's the fact for most of the exporting companies among different industries, appreciation would lead to a Bullish of the Chinese economy, even lead to a Bullish world economy.

- I have a bullish view on the 3rd and 4th quarter market on Chinese economy and Yuan since Chinese government had a macro-policy control and adjustment of the market. The long-term effect need to watch but will not affect the bullish for the rest of 2010.

- It would be a good timing now for the currency trading speculations, not only RMB to USD, but also RMB to HKD and RMB to other currencies.

- Bullish on RMB and Chinese economy would also lead to more hot money flowing into China and I think thus would lead to a higher interest rate as a result.

Conclusion:

I'm bullish on Yuan and Chinese economy for the time frame till the end of 2010.

I'm bullish on Chinese exports for 2010.

The RMB has started appreciation since the past week, and I'm confident on a further appreciation of it in 1 year.

It's a good time for Yuan speculation and Asian Stocks since both Yuan and Yen are having a strong trend.

Liz. L

SA

Analyze Capital LLC

Recovery in the housing market is on the verge of stalling (is a double-dip near?)

A summary from various news sources:
· With the expiry of an $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers on April 30, new single-family home sales in the U.S. crashed in May.
· Commerce department figures showed on Wednesday that new home sales dropped by 32.7 per cent from April to May to an annual rate of 300,000.
· The monthly fall was also a record, and was nearly twice as severe as Wall Street analysts had predicted.
· Compared with the same month a year ago, new home sales are off by 18.3 per cent.
· Additionally, home prices have now fallen for the past six months, according to the Case-Shiller home-price index.
· Foreclosures have been running at a rate of over 300,000 filings a month for the past 15 months.
· By some estimates, it will take more than eight years of normal sales to clear the stock of houses now held by banks.
· Bloomberg reported that mortgage securities with U.S.-backed guarantees traded at record high prices on speculation homeowner refinancing will fail to accelerate and as supply of the bonds remains limited.

Thoughts:
With the government stimulus drawing down, we now have a reminder of what the housing situation is really like. Other than low interest rates, there are few factors that will provide a boost to the housing market at the moment. This is why the fed has opted to keep interest rates low and will continue to do so (probably at least until early 2011).

Housing will continue to be one of the most important indicators for our economy. Many economists argue that the housing market never really recovered in the first place. The rebound that we saw was largely due to artificial support from the government and low interest rates from the fed. Therefore, the best investors and buyers can hope for is a slow and steady improvement in the coming months. The stock market and the entire economy are likely to follow the same slow and steady growth if they are to improve.

Being that housing and labor markets go hand in hand. An improvement in employment and incomes is needed to raise home demand and lift house prices. Poor jobs data in the past month is another sign that the recovery in the housing market is stalling.

Conclusion:
The drop in homes sales is likely a correction, due to the expiring tax credits. I do not expect a double dip in the housing market. However, I do see a long and drawn out recovery that will take years to play out. What will it take in order to see improvements in employment (which will aid housing)? Businesses will need easier access to credit and stronger confidence from consumers.

Daniel A.
Summer Analyst
Analyze Capital LLC

Daily EUR Update: June 25, 2009

THE DAILY 3 MONTH



Minding the daily time frame and natural volatility (Unfortunately this software didn't grant me access to the ATR):


Price pressure is to the downside. We will see a lower EUR over the new few days. Confirmation of:

• Perfection SMA bearish formation
  
• MACD momentum reversal
  

Aside from the given fundamentals…


Contrastingly the Bull picture is gaining some footing:

• possible 50 RSI support indicative of an uptrend (weak dollar)
  
• Price pattern: If the downside is mild over the next day a lower high is feasible.
  
• The widening of BB is encouraging for the increased volume giving more conviction to a bullish move
  

SUMMARY:

Short term bull for the rest of JUN: (look for that short term entry on the dips) I will expect prices on the EUR/USD to move higher in the month of JUL.


---

Alexander Lê
Managing Partner
Analyze Capital LLC
email:le.alex48@gmail.com

SPX review: June 25, 2010

OLD SPX OUTLOOK FROM JUNE 3rd>

The good:

• I made the correct call on the price pattern
  

The Bad:

• my time frame was way off as I should have considered the faster nature of a daily chart
  
• Did not take into consideration that a falling moving average would create a lower resistance level, hence my 1150 resistence call was off.
  

Summary:

Overall, Lesson well learned, as they say forecasting can be quite futile, but I think the key here was that I got the correct price path and my cross analysis would have led me to trade accordingly despite a bad call on time frames.

Luckily, my partner Pat was able to follow his instinct and fundamental insights and, if he allows, some technical confirmation on my part to get a 11% gain on puts on the SPX on this 5% correction.

IMHO, it was a great collaboration, but Pat deserves all the credit as he did all the trading and stuck tried and true to the expected support levels we are currently seeing.

We will be re-"Analyzing" and keeping you posted on our next moves…


----


Alexander Lê
Managing Partner
Analyze Capital LLC
email: analyzecapital@gmail.com

Jobs and Recovery: June 24, 2010

I apologize for my recent disappearance on the blog, recently on the work front I have been tackling a plethora of issues.

Recently I have been revisiting the blogsphere and came across an interesting zerohedge article: How US Job Losses Will End

In short, (even though the article is quite short), the rise in wages seen in emerging markets (particularly Asia) will lead to less US outsourcing jobs to abroad (along with other factors such as yuan floating and industrial pressures). He also highlights the very lost cost of labor in Vietnam vs China and India who are experiencing wage inflation, making it a attractive country to invest in.

I'm interested in both points but pertaining the former:

With China trying to tame their credit growth and avoid a market collapse, prospects of the Chinese government focusing more on domestic development is increasing. Evidence of this is their recent policy change of floating the yuan. This will allow for much more flexibility and ability to tame inflation, control unemployment, and bring stability to the central kingdom.

As the article implies, this will lead to:

higher wages in those emerging economies

less outsourcing in the US

new US innovation and focus on production/manufacturing

and a possible revitalization to the US job markets


Though, in honestly, I'm sure its far from simple such that if you have X, then you will get Y then Z. However, the logic and thoughts are worth mentioning as that is certainly a viable trend within the next decade.


THE DOLLAR:


More interestingly for our group, what does this mean for a dollar trend? I won't speak of forecasts as that seems to be the taboo word among my peers. Though I will certainly say trade flows will change. The capital and current account may see reversed flows exerting downward pressure on the dollar within the stated time frame give above (from a trade perspective).

However, dollar weakness may be off set by the what is often talked about from the "inflation vs deflation" debate, something my good friend "Sauros<----" often talks about. Particular if inflation is the greater issue at hand, a series of interest rate hikes will be expected (watch that yield curve!), which might be a greater influence in the short term for the dollar vs. something like reversed trade flows, which is a structural issue and may take many years to be seen effects are seen in the economies.

In the short term (the next few years) the inflation debate will be more relevant before China can tackle their domestic issues to the extent that it will help the US jobs market.

In that respect, as Asia and Europe (the fiscal crisis and contagion) deal with their economic issues, which will take many years to resolve, the US will continue to push ahead and be the number 1 economy.

Simply Put I am dollar bull fundamentally in the long term. However, I will continue to stick to my short term trading.


PS: I apologize for the long blog, if you need clarification just comment or email me!
----

Alexander Lê
Managing Parnter
Analyze Capital LLC
email:analyzecapital@gmail.com

Durable Goods Orders- 06.24.2010

The May durables report showed a headline number slipping from an April spike. But there was moderate strength in the details. New factory orders for durable goods in May declined 1.1 percent after jumping a revised 3.0 percent in April. Overall new orders for durables were worse than the market forecast for a 0.5 percent dip.

The big negative in the report was the transportation component which dropped 6.9 percent in May. Nondefense aircraft swung down 29.6 percent after spiking 215.7 percent in April. Yes, you might call that category volatile. Defense aircraft slipped 7.1 percent in the latest month. But a very notable positive in transportation was a 0.7 percent boost in autos, continuing several monthly gains.

Bloomberg.com


Patrick M. Ambrus
Analyze Capital LLC
ambrus.anlzgroup@gmail.com

Market Update-06.23.2010

Equity Indexes
INDU- 10298.40 4.92 (+0.05%)
NASDAQ- 2254.23 -7.57 (-0.33%)
SPX- 1092.04 -3.27 (-0.30%)

Commodities
WTI Crude Oil- $76.14 -0.21 (-0.28%)
Brent Crude Oil- $76.270 -1.770 (-2.27%)
Natural Gas- $4.7990 -0.005 (-0.10%)
Gold Spot- $1238.00 3.20 (+0.26%)
Silver Spot- $18.585 0.081 (+0.44%)

Bonds
2 Year UST- Price:99.89 (-0.02) Yield: 0.68% (+0.68)
10 Year UST- Price:103.20 (-0.02) Yield: 3.12% (-0.05)
10 Year Gilt- Price:110.75 (+0.17) Yield: 3.43% (-0.02)
10 Year Bund- Price:103.05 (+0.39) Yield: 2.64% (-0.04)
10 Year Oats- Price:103.51 (-0.11) Yield: 3.08% (+0.01)
10 Year JGB- Price:101.32 (+0.12) Yield: 1.15% (-0.04)
10 Year Greek- Price: 74.97 (-2.91) Yield: 10.36% (+0.59)

Foreign Exchange
EUR/USD = 1.2313
GBP/USD = 1.4973
USD/JPY = 89.9340
USD/CAD= 1.0394
EUR/JPY = 111.1698
EUR/HUF= 279.5028

Equity Index Futures
Nikkei 225- 9,950.00 +50.00
Hang Sang- 20,935.00 +96.00
SPI 200- 4,481.00 +8.00

10 year Greek debt is now trading at a whopping 772 bp over 10 year Bunds. It will be nearly impossible for the Greek government to roll over their debt in private markets or access short-term financing for their day-to-day operations, if spreads continue to widen. Unfortunately this story did not get enough play today.

The U.S. economy was front and center. Bernanke reminded us he and his team can continue to drop money out of the FED's helicopter if needed. Kansas City President Hoening was the lone dissenter today.

I took some profits on my SPX puts early in the session today. Tomorrow I'm looking to go long Nat Gas for part of the session. Crude is in play too.

By the way, All Kobe does is win! Good luck trading tomorrow!

Related ETF's: United States Oil Fund LP (USO:US), United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG:US), United States 12 Month Natural Gas Fund LP (UNL:US)

Patrick M. Ambrus
Analyze Capital LLC
ambrus.anlzgroup@gmail.com

Canadian CPI- 06.22.2010

Consumer prices rose 1.4% in the 12 months to May, following a 1.8% increase in April.

Overall, energy prices rose 6.2% between May 2009 and May 2010, following a 9.8% increase during the 12-month period to April. Excluding energy, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.0% in May, after increasing 1.1% in April.

www.statcan.gc.ca

Patrick M. Ambrus
Managing Partner
Analyze Capital LLC
Twitter: AnalyzeCapital

Market Update- 06.21.2010

Equity Indexes
INDU- 10,442.41 -8.23 (-0.08%)
NASDAQ- 2,289.09 -20.71 (-0.90%)
SPX- 1,113.20 -4.31 (-0.39%)

Commodities
WTI Crude Oil- $77.49 -.33 (-0.42%)
Brent Crude Oil- $78.560 -0.260 (-0.33%)
Natural Gas- $4.870 -0.003 (-0.06%)
Gold Spot- $1237.400 -3.300 (-0.27%)
Silver Spot- $18.780 -0.074 (-0.39%)

Bonds
2 Year UST- Price:100.06 (-0.02) Yield: 0.72% (+0.01)
10 Year UST- Price:102.13 (-0.05) Yield: 3.25% (+0.03)
10 Year Gilt- Price:110.09 (+0.26) Yield: 3.51% (-0.03)
10 Year Bund- Price:102.01 (-0.33) Yield: 2.76% (+0.04)
10 Year Oats- Price:103.28 (+0.03) Yield: 3.10% (+0.00)
10 Year JGB- Price:100.67 (-0.11) Yield: 1.23% (+0.02)
10 Year Greek-Price: 79.53 (-0.36) Yield: 9.48% (+0.07)

Foreign Exchange
EUR/USD = 1.2320
GBP/USD = 1.4760
USD/JPY = 90.9250
USD/CAD= 1.0238
EUR/JPY = 112.2393

Equity Index Futures
Nikkei 225- 10,140.00 -90.00
Hang Sang- 20,970.00 591.00
SPI 200- 4,575.00 -24.00

I don't have too much to say about market movements today. Though, I will leave you with this:

One of the practical limitations of Black-Scholes is that the actual behavior of shares in the real world appears not to conform to the pattern we would expect from a single bell curve.

--A. Chisholm

N. Taleb would call this "The Great Intellectual Fraud". Good luck trading tomorrow.

Related ETF's: FXC:US CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust, USL:US United States 12 Month Oil Fund LP, SSO:US ProShares Ultra S&P500

Patrick M. Ambrus
Managing Partner
Analyze Capital LLC
Twitter: AnalyzeCapital

Yuan's Appreciation

Yuan Climbs Most in 20 Months After China Signals End to Peg:

The Yuan climbed the most in 20 months against the dollar and forwards jumped after China’s central bank relaxed a two-year peg before a Group of 20 summit this week.

China’s central bank announced on June 19 that the yuan’s “flexibility” would increase, officials said the currency’s value was not a suitable item for discussion at the G-20 meeting in Toronto.

China’s signal of an end to the yuan’s fixed rate to the dollar may accelerate a shift toward domestic demand as the prime driver of growth as President Hu Jintao seeks to strengthen household incomes.

Chinese President Hu Jintao may have succeeded in removing the yuan’s valuation from debate at this week’s Group of 20 leaders’ summit, economists and political analysts say. How much time he’s bought depends on how flexible the currency will become.

BULLISH EVIDENCE:

Major economies among the world push China to appreciate the value of RMB, especially against USD and Euros

US Congress has the vote of the Action whether put China as the exchange rate control nation, which directly pressures Chinese government for a high RMB to USD rate

Bearish Evidence:

Chinese economy faces serious inflation problem inside the country, which becomes another factor that influence. Since people supposed to get more money as currency inflated, if RMB appreciates a lot at the same time, RMB will become even less valuable

One of the major support of China's GDP growth is the exporting, there is a big contribution of exporting as a percentage of the employment and trade surplus. If RMB appreciates, the exporting will definitely got hurt and harm the country's stability and economics.

In my humble opinion, the Bullish picture has a more valid argument because of the current economic situation inside China and the outside circumstances of the other major economies in the world. I expect Yuan appreciates for 3% within one year.

Liz. L

SA

Analyze Capital LLC

China steer new course on the Yuan.

China has announced that it will removed the peg of its currency on the USD and will create a managed floating exchange rate, despite the strong opposition from export lobbyist in the country. This is a very positive news because it shows that China is making efforts to contribute for the global economical recovery. Also, making its currency more flexible, will also help China develops its consumerism. China has been growing with tremendous speed and the inflation has become an important factor. By letting the currency naturally appreciate, the government will be able to fight off inflation and also will help increase the domestic income which is important for the development of domestic market. There are of course many risks related with the appreciation of the Yuan. An example is Japan, who in 1985 agreed to a "major appreciation of the Yen against the dollar." As a result a long economic slump followed in later years. (WSJ) What China has to do is be very careful with the appreciation of the Yuan and create time for exporters to react. In my opinion, the appreciation of the Yuan would be positive for China, not only because it will benefit the consumers but also will make producers more competitive and efficient. This measures will further open up the economy of China and will ultimately benefit the global economy as a whole.

Luong T. Hai
Summer Analyst
Analyze Capital LLC

Source: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704365204575317854181814956.html?mod=WSJ_hps_LEFTTopStories#articleTabs%3Darticle

Daily recap- 17/06/2010

New doubts on the recovery of the US economy were revived as new disappointing data were presented today. Here are some of the key challenges:

1. Jobless claims in the previous week rose to 472000 from 46000. A number that is higher than foretasted and that posses some concerns over the health of the domestic economy.

2. The CPI inflation slowed to 2.0 percent after a drop of 0.2% in May. Although there are still no concerns over deflation, a disinflationary period is a sign of economic slowdown.

3. Drop of retail sales by 1.2% in May, which casts a new doubt on the rebound of consumer spending.

The negative data was the reason for the Dow trading on the downside for most of the day; however, stronger technological sector, led by Apple Inc., helped the Dow to end on the green side at 10,434.17 which is 24.71 (0.24%) higher than yesterday. The S&P 500 climbed 0.1 % to finish at 1116.04. After a huge surge that broke through the SMA(200), the S&P 500 ended with a two day “doji,” which to me look like a long-legged doji. That gives a sense of indirection between buyers and sellers after the rally on June 15^th. I would wait to see a bearish candle stick before shorting. Taking in the consideration my previous analysis on the S&P 500, I believe that the index might have a small dip in the next few weeks to complete the correction formation.

On the fundamental side, there are few things that come to my mind. Gold ended to 1,245.80, which is record high. Paring the fact that investors are seeking safety haven with the drop on CPI, we have some quite strong indicators that the economy might stall here. Now the question is what else the government and the FED can do? Drop on interest rates is impossible as it is already at the lowest point and big stimulus will most certainly not work again because of the strong opposition. Now, from all this information, in my opinion, it is most likely that the interest rates will not be increased any time soon, maybe not even before the Q1 of 2011. Housing data has been quite weak, partially also because of the expiration of the tax break that the government created during the period of recession. Will the government extent the tax break? Very possibly! Another thing that concerns me is related to the safety of the USD. If other countries were to increase the rates before the U.S. does, the USD will undoubtedly be hammered.

Luong T. Hai
Summer Analyst
Analyze Capital LLC

Daily Market Recap-06.16.2010

Equity Indexes
INDU- 10,409.46 4.69 (+0.05%)
NASDAQ- 2,305.93 0.05 (+0.00%)
SPX- 1,114.61 -0.62 (-0.06%)

Commodities
WTI Crude Oil- $77.560 0.620 +0.81%)
Brent Crude Oil- $78.120 1.020 (+1.32%)
Natural Gas- $5.017 -0.172 (-3.31%)
Gold Spot- $1231.400 -3.000 (-0.24%)
Silver Spot- $18.465 -0.113 (-0.61%)

Bonds
2 Year UST- Price:100.05 (+0.05) Yield: 0.73% (-0.02)
10 Year UST- Price:102.00 (+0.34) Yield: 3.26% (-0.04)
10 Year Gilt- Price:109.91 (+0.15) Yield: 3.53% (-0.02)
2 Year Schatz- Price:100.01 (+0.25) Yield:0.50% (-0.012)
10 Year Bund- Price:102.85 (+0.28) Yield: 2.67% (-0.003)
10 Year Oats- Price:103.21 (-0.05) Yield: 3.11% (+0.01)
10 Year JGB- Price:100.49 (-0.09) Yield: 1.24% (+0.01)

Foreign Exchange
EUR/USD = 1.2309
GBP/USD = 1.4733
USD/JPY = 91.4500
USD/CAD= 1.0244
EUR/JPY = 112.5685

Equity Index Futures
Nikkei 225- 10,040.00 -50.00 (-0.50%)
Topix- 893.50 -1.00 (-0.11%)
Hang Sang- 20,145.00 56.00 (+0.28%)
SPI 200- 4,558.00 4.00 (+0.09%)

Today I did not trade. We had some administrative issues to take care of with our platform. Tomorrow I will be back at it. I enjoyed Obama last night. Short and to the point.

The Lake Shows dominated the Celtics last night. One more victory and Kobe will have 5 rings, Phil 11. Spain lost in their opening match-up. They better pick u the pace seeing as I have them winning it all.

Related ETFs: FXB:US Currency Shares British Pound Sterling Trust, DUG:US ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas

Patrick M. Ambrus
Managing Partner
Analyze Capital LLC
Twitter: AnalyzeCapital

Few thoughts on gold

via WSJ,

Gold futures were mostly steady, hanging onto the prior session's
gains amid concerns about European debt issues after reports that the
head of the International Monetary Fund and Spain's prime minister will
meet on Friday. This triggered initial worries that the country
may seek financial assistance, although Spanish officials said they will
not be seeking aid.

"Apprehensions that the [European Union] debt issues could translate into difficulties
for the U.S. economic recovery are still preoccupying the trade," he
said. The euro weakened as traders fled Spanish bonds on worries
the country may seek financial assistance, with the gap in yields
between 10-year Spanish and German bonds widening. The single European
currency fell to $1.2294 from $1.2348 late Tuesday in New York.

Investors, particularly those in Europe, have often bought gold on a flight to
safety in recent weeks whenever the Continent's debt problems appear to
worsen, thereby pressuring the euro. On Tuesday, gold rose even though
the euro and equities were higher. Normally, this might erode the
safe-haven buying of gold, but analysts described a mood in which some
investors used a recent price retreat as an opportunity to buy the metal
on ideas that euro-zone sovereign-debt issues would return to the
forefront.


1. Sovereign debt trouble encourages buying gold.
2. Fear for economic instability pushes investors to seek an psychological safe haven
2. People may also be buying gold to hedge against inflation.
3. Stronger gold and weaker currency the two sides of the same coin? Probable that investors are buying gold and shorting euro at the same time?

=======================================================

Conclusions:
1. Gold prices should continue to be strong, because
2. Investors do have things to worry: the European trouble, the consequences of loose fiscal policy and low interest rate, oil spill, regulation, blablabla.
3. Under the export-led recovery plans, developed countries intend to see their currencies drop lower. So investing in euro or dollar denominated assets might not be a great idea because of the additional market risks. Plus,
4. Investors have reasons to avoid long term bonds for now, since
5. Bond yields are not impressive enough to mitigate the fear investors have, and
6. The bond market is anticipated to experience a turmoil, once interest rates are raised.

Generally, rising prices of gold indicate conservative, or to some extent bearish, sentiments. If you believe that there's nothing else rewarding enough to justify the financial risks and psychological burden, why not just invest in gold? Lately, with a stock market in correction mode, a bond market full of future surprises, an worldwide recovery just underway, this is exactly what many investors are thinking.


Yi Gao
Summer Analyst
Analyze Capital LLC

Oil Near One-Month High

Bloomberg:
Crude oil traded near a one-month high in New York as gains in U.S. equities restored confidence that fuel demand will increase.

Oil earlier extended yesterday’s 2.4% jump after the dollar index dropped 1.7 percent in the past two days, increasing the appeal of commodities as an inflation hedge. The Dow climbed 2.1% while the S&P 500 gained 2.4%.

Crude oil for July delivery was at $76.92 a barrel, down 2 cents, on the NYMEX at 10:52 a.m. Singapore time. The contract surged $1.82 yesterday to $76.94, the highest closing price since May 6. Futures are up 9.2 percent from a year ago.

Crude broached a closely watched pricing point yesterday, closing above the 200-day moving average of $76.94 a barrel for the first time in a month.

Oil’s gains yesterday were tempered after the industry- funded American Petroleum Institute reported that U.S. crude-oil stockpiles rose 579,000 barrels to 358.7 million.

The Energy Department will probably report that U.S. gasoline inventories were little changed last week, the Bloomberg News analyst survey shows. Stockpiles of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, are forecast to climb 1 million barrels. The department is scheduled to release its weekly report at 10:30 a.m. EST.

Thoughts:
At the moment, I am leaning toward being bullish on crude until the end of the summer. However, I do not want to make a definite stance until I can find more information relating to supply. I am convinced that demand will continue to grow in the U.S., due to increased gasoline usage during the summer and slow economic recovery, and in emerging economies, due to continued economic growth. If supplies show strong signs of decline, then crude will continue its rally.

Daniel A.
Summer Analyst
Analyze Capital LLC

S&P 500 - Up through the ‘roof', or just almost there

The day ended with many satisfied football fans as Brazil, the five time champions of the world, won their first game in group G against North Korea, though with some certain amount of sweating. Coincidentally, U.S. stocks also jumped as investors went on a buying spree. The Dow ended at 10,404.77 with an increase of 213.88 or 2.10% equivalent and the S&P500 closed at 1115.23, which is 25.60 or 2.35% higher. The move on the S&P500 is very significant, especially on the technical analysis aspect because it broke through the 200 day SMA for the first time since the down trend that started a month ago. This might be a possible indicator for the end of the downtrend.

From the chart, you can see that the price drop started approximately on the 26th of April creating a downward trend with the channel presented with the parallel red lines. The price reached the lowest point at around 1043 on 25th of May and subsequently bounced back. It must be noted that the level of 1043 (the green line) is a strong support level. After May 25th, the prices dropped and tested the support level one more time, which turned out to be strong. After the last dip, the prices surged and broke through the MA (200) and closed at 1115.23 for the day. This is very significant because it indicates a possible reversal of the downtrend. As it can be seen on the MACD, a cross-over of the fast moving line with the slow one happened almost after the last dip, which is another indicator that the trend is reversing. The stochastic and the RSI are looking good and do not indicate an overbought market. However, to further strengthen my position on the possible reversal of the trend, I have also tested the Elliot wave for confirmation. As you can see, the downtrend indeed creates 5 waves with the 3rd wave being the steepest. Now, I believe, we are in the ABC correction period with ‘A’ being the recent increase in price.

On Fundamental perspective, there is a high optimism on the recovery of the economy. Euro industrial production data were higher than forecasted. Although sovereign debt of the PIIGS countries remains an issue, the friendly demonstration by Germany and France, two of the biggest economies in the region proved that Europe can stand together as a union in hard time, which is vital for the stability of the block. Economists also expects that industrial production in the US for the month will be higher than May, which we will find out tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. EST. Alongside with the industrial data, also look for the Housing starts and Producer Price Index data, which will also be released at the same time. Also, don't miss the event at 10:00 a.m. EST!

In conclusion, in my opinion, the economy is giving signs that it is stabilizing. Technical analysis shows that the downtrend is on the verge of reversal, although I still expect some dips to come during the correction period. Fundamentally, things also look better although there are certainly factors that will cause hindrance to the recovery process, such as the debt issues in Europe and also the tightening of the financial policies by the governments and, of course, BP’s spill that can bring drastic changes to the energy industry. We shall see...



Luong T. Hai
Summer Analyst
Analyze Capital LLC

Risk Management Theory

"There is a saying that bad traders divorce their spouse sooner than abandon their positions. Loyalty to ideas is not a good thing for traders, scientists, or anyone."

--Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Fooled By Randomness

In my down time I enjoy reading other's thoughts on the markets and inherent risks involved with participation. This saying reminded me how important internal risk management is. One must constantly re-evaluate their own thoughts and beliefs. Stubbornness wins out occasionally, but sometimes takes years to be proven correct. In the mean time, one may become insolvent and/or illiquid.


Patrick M. Ambrus
Managing Partner
Analyze Capital LLC
analyzecapital@gmail.com

Market Recap- 06.14.2010

Equity Indexes
INDU- 10,190.89 -20.18 (-0.20%)
NASDAQ- 2,243.96 0.36 (+0.02%)
SPX- 1,089.63 -1.97 (-0.18%)

Commodities
WTI Crude Oil- $75.060 1.280 (+1.73%)
Brent Crude Oil- $74.970 0.620 (+0.83%)
Natural Gas- $5.030 0.249 (+5.21%)
Gold Spot- $1222.800 -7.400 (-0.60%)
Silver Spot- $18.235 0.004 (+0.02%)

Bonds
2 Year UST- Price:100.03 (-0.02) Yield: 0.73% (+0.01)
10 Year UST- Price:102.02 (-0.22) Yield: 3.26% (+0.03)
10 Year Gilt- Price:109.83 (-0.72) Yield: 3.54% (+0.08)
2 Year Schatz- Price:100.01 (-0.06) Yield:0.49% (+0.30)
10 Year Bund- Price:103.14 (-0.64) Yield: 2.63% (+0.07)
10 Year Oats- Price:103.40 (-0.59) Yield: 3.09% (+0.07)
10 Year JGB- Price:100.54 (-0.11) Yield: 1.24% (+0.00)

Foreign Exchange
EUR/USD = 1.2228
GBP/USD = 1.4751
USD/JPY = 91.5300
USD/CAD= 1.0325
EUR/JPY = 111.9850

Equity Index Futures
Nikkei 225- 9,890.00 10.00 (+0.10%)
Topix- 878.00 2.00 (+0.23%)
Hang Sang- 20,089.00 241.00 (+1.21%)
SPI 200- 4,528.00 2.00 (+0.04%)


Big moves in commodities markets today. Natural Gas was up over 5% on concerns of a worse then expected hurricane season. Crude oil also rallied. U.S. Equities were marginally positive throughout the day with the SPX briefly trading @ 1103. The Dollar paired back some gains from last week's strength. Today, I monitored my positions but did not actively trade.

The Lakers lost last night. Celtics now lead the series 3-2. I still expect LA to win the its 2nd consecutive championship. In world cup news Netherlands beat Denmark 2-0 on some goal keeping errors. Tomorrow Portugal takes on Ivory coast at the start of U.S. equity trading.

Realted ETF's: SPY:US SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, DIG:US ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas

Patrick M. Ambrus
Managing Partner
Analyze Capital LLC
Twitter: AnalyzeCapital

Greece Downgraded to Junk by Moody's

Greece’s credit rating was cut four steps to non-investment grade, or junk, by Moody’s Investors Service, which cited the country’s economic “risks.” The rating was lowered to Ba1 from A3, Moody’s said in a statement today from London. The outlook is stable, it said. Greece is already rated junk by Standard & Poor’s.

Bloomberg.com

It was only a matter of time before this happened. Why do two ratings agencies have so much power? The better question is, will traders and lenders continue to listen? I won't. As far as I'm concerned, Greek debt has been junk since March.

If you want to get short Greece, check out the Claymore/Delta Global Shipping Index ETF (SEA), which allocates 18% of holdings to Greece.

Related ETFs/ETNs: EUFN:US iShares MSCI Europe Financial Sector Index Fund, URR:US Market Vectors Double Long Euro ETN, ULE:US ProShares Ultra Euro


Patrick M. Ambrus
Managing Partner
Analyze Capital LLC
Twitter: AnalyzeCapital

Second Funding Squeeze?

European banks at risk of write-downs from the sovereign debt crisis face a funding squeeze that may depress earnings, curb lending and imperil economic recovery in the region.

Bloomberg.com

As both The U.K. and Germany announced steps to pare spending, it's a signal for these two big European countries to lead another round of fiscal tightening. Germany targeted 19.1 billion Euro cut on the deficit in 2011 and 2012 respectively. If the tightening continues to expand, there is potential for a second crisis.


Liz Liu
Summer Analyst
Analyze Capital LLC

Market Recap- 06.11.2010

Equity Indexes
INDU- 10,211.07 38.54 (+0.38%)
NASDAQ- 2,243.60 24.89 (+1.12%)
SPX- 1,091.60 4.76 (+0.44%)

Commodities
WTI Crude Oil- $73.780 -1.700 (-2.25%)
Brent Crude Oil- $74.350 -0.940 (-1.25%)
Natural Gas- $4.781 0.134 (+2.88%)
Gold Spot- $1230.200 8.000 (+0.65%)
Silver Spot- $18.231 -0.120 (-0.65%)

Bonds
2 Year UST- Price:100.05 (+0.11) Yield: 0.73% (-0.06)
10 Year UST- Price:102.23 (+0.72) Yield: 3.23% (-0.08)
10 Year Gilt- Price:110.55 (+0.84) Yield: 3.46% (-0.10)
2 Year Schatz- Price:100.07 (+0.096) Yield:0.25% (-0.048)
10 Year Bund- Price:103.79 (+0.39) Yield: 2.56% (-0.04)
10 Year Oats- Price:103.99 (+0.39) Yield: 3.02% (-0.04)
10 Year JGB- Price:100.65 (-0.23) Yield: 1.24% (+0.03)

Foreign Exchange
EUR/USD = 1.2113
GBP/USD = 1.4549
USD/JPY = 91.6550
USD/CAD= 1.0360
EUR/JPY = 110.6800

Today I exited my SPX position before the close of trading. Locked in my Profits. My Short USO position recovered today and I will maintain my stance until I see evidence contrary to my view. In addition, I cashed out my short Nat Gas position for some small profits. I also went short the CAD and long USD around 16:00.

The Lake Show lost last night and foiled my "LA in 5" prediction. However, in order to win the Championship they need to win game 5 to preserve home court. Bynum was missed last night. Tomorrow I'll be watching some Futbol.

Related ETFs: FXC:US CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust, USL:US United States 12 Month Oil Fund LP, SSO:US ProShares Ultra S&P500

Patrick M. Ambrus
Managing Partner
Analyze Capital LLC
Twitter: AnalyzeCapital

Update on Japan

Bloomberg:
The Bank of Japan is set to detail a plan to stimulate credit for private companies that may prove insufficient to spur economic growth and defeat deflation.

The program is unlikely to exceed a few trillion yen (tens of billions of U.S. dollars) two people familiar with the matter said. The facility would do little to stoke domestic demand, said former BOJ board member Teizo Taya, adding that the effort is mainly aimed at fending off calls for broader monetary easing.

Pressure may rise in coming months as newly appointed Prime Minister Naoto Kan, who as deputy repeatedly called on the central bank to step up its efforts, lays out his government’s priorities.

Bank lending declined for a sixth month in May, the central bank said this week. However, other data indicate Japan’s export-led recovery remains intact. GDP rose at an annualized 5 percent rate last quarter, the most since the second quarter of 2009, the government said yesterday. Machinery orders climbed for a second month in April.

Thoughts:
It appears that Japan's central bank needs to do more in order to spur economic growth and prevent deflation. However, with Naoto Kan as the newly appointed prime minister and with new leaders in the finance ministry, there may soon be greater pressure on the BOJ to purchase government bonds and set specific inflation targets.

Daniel A.
Summer Analyst
Analyze Capital LLC

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Rises-06.11.2010

Retail sales may be going in the wrong direction but not consumer sentiment, which rose to 75.5 in the mid-June reading vs. 73.6 at month-end May. The nearly two-point gain is sizable and puts the index at its best level of the year. Gains were posted for both the expectations and current conditions components. Another plus is a definitive fading in inflation expectations, falling an unusually steep 5 tenths in the 12-month outlook to 2.7 percent. Today's report, because of its strength, hints at underlying improvement in the jobs market and should offset the sting from the May retail sales report.

Bloomberg.com

Currently, the biggest dilemma against the rising consumers' confidence is the unemployment. In addition, according to the statistics the Euro-zone debt crisis doesn't affect consumers' sentiment too much. Though, it is still a great concern of the future development.


Liz T. Liu
Summer Analyst
Analyze Capital LLC

Chinese Inflation & Industrial Production

Consumer price inflation rose to 3.1 per cent in May from 2.8 per cent the month before, while factory gate inflation was also higher at 7.1 per cent, up from 6.8 per cent. However, industrial production dropped to a year-on-year increase of 16.5 per cent in May, against a 17.8 per cent increase the month before.

Falling growth and rising prices places the government in a policy quandary,” said Tom Orlik, economist at Stone & McCarthy in Beijing. “Falling growth argues for policy continuity. Rising inflation suggests accelerating the tightening schedule.”

FT.com



China may be headed for a prolonged period of stagflation in the future.


Patrick M. Ambrus
Managing Partner
Analyze Capital LLC
Twitter: AnalyzeCapital

Belgium - The New Greece of the North

In the Financial Times, the headlines: "Inertia complicates Belgian debt fears" were on the first page a few days ago. Albeit the country has budget deficit that is within the limit of the union and has an economy that runs trade surplus, worries over the sovereign debt of Belgium adds another dead weight to the negative sentiment on the recovery of European economy. According to the FT, "Belgium’s debt is currently at 99 per cent of its gross domestic product, the highest in the eurozone after Greece and Italy, and is forecast to exceed GDP by the end of the year." The structure of the country's debt is the source of the problem. 82% of the short term bills is owned by foreigners with a short maturity, which means that the country will have to regularly refinance. In addition to that, Belgium's recovery from the recession has been extremely sluggish, with a GDP of only 0.1%, which is below the euro-zone average.

Besides economical woes, Belgium also faces social instabilities that roots from the division of the country into Dutch -speaking Flemish majority and Francophone minority. The differences in language led to many conflicts, one of each was the division of the coalition government in April that led to early elections that will be held on June 13th. I am in anticipation to see what will be the outcome of the election and whether the new government will be able to patch the wound that has caused so much hemorrhage to the country. Without internal social stability, it would be very hard for Belgium to achieve economical stability, which will ultimately have a negative influence on Europe.



Luong T. Hai
Summer Analyst
Analyze Capital LLC

U.S. Steps up its Rhetoric on China’s Yuan Policy

Bloomberg:
“The distortions caused by China’s exchange rate spread far beyond China’s borders and are an impediment to the global rebalancing we need,” Geithner said in testimony to the Senate Finance Committee today.

The Senate will vote “soon” on a measure aimed at getting China to raise the value of the yuan, Senator Charles Schumer of New York told Geithner at the hearing.
“This is fair warning,” said Schumer. Lawmakers, “despite the administration asking us not to do it, are going to move forward with our bipartisan legislation to provide specific consequences for countries that fail to adopt appropriate policies.” Schumer said yesterday that the Senate would vote within two weeks.

“We want China to provide a level playing field for the products of American workers and investments by American companies,” Geithner said. “And we want China to change its growth strategy to rely less on exports and more on consumption.”

Since July 2008, the yuan has been held by officials around 6.83 per dollar, after Premier Wen Jiabao’s government allowed a 21 percent advance in the prior three years. In April, Geithner delayed the release of a twice-yearly report on whether China or any other country is manipulating its exchange rate.

Thoughts:
With the U.S. increasing its pressure on China to adjust its currency, China may decide to give into the pressure soon (possibly by the end of the year?). However, the U.S. does not have much leverage, being that it relies heavily on China to purchase its debt. Premier Wen Jiabao might be laughing out loud after hearing Geithner’s comments, especially since China’s exports recently increased the most in six years. Other than maintaining good political relations, there is little incentive for China to make changes.

Daniel A.
Summer Analyst
Analyze Capital, LLC

Words of Wisdom form Reinhart & Rogoff

"The essence of the this-time is-different syndrome is simple. It is rooted in the firmly held belief that financial crises are things that happen to other people in other countries at other times; crises do not happen to us here and now.

We are doing things better, we are smarter, we have learned from our past mistakes. The old rules of valuation no longer apply. Unfortunately, a highly leveraged economy can unwittingly be sitting with its back at the edge of a financial cliff for many years before chance and circumstance provoke a crisis of confidence that pushes it off."

I started reading Reinhart & Rogoff's book, This Time Is Different, this morning. This paragraph put a big smile on my face.


Patrick M. Ambrus
Managing Partner
Analyze Capital LLC
ambrus.anlzgroup@gmail.com

Market Recap- 06.10.2010

Equity Indexes
INDU- 10,172.53 273.28 (+1.25%)
NASDAQ- 2,218.71 59.86 (+2.77%)
SPX- 1,086.84 31.15 (+2.95%)

Commodities
WTI Crude Oil- $75.48 1.10 (+1.48%)
Brent Crude Oil- $75.40 1.13 (+1.52%)
Natural Gas- $4.699 0.022 (+0.47%)
Gold Spot- $1218.200 -11.700 (-0.95%)
Silver Spot- $18.240 0.051 (+0.28%)

Bonds
10 Year UST- Price:102.44 (-0.22) Yield: 3.21% (+0.03)
10 Year Gilt- Price:110.01 (-0.50) Yield: 3.52% (+0.06)
10 Year Bund- Price:103.78 (-0.50) Yield: 2.56% (+0.05)
10 Year Oats- Price: 103.74 (+0.11) Yield: 3.05% (-0.01)
10 Year JGB- Price:100.80 (+0.17) Yield: 1.21% (-0.03)

Foreign Exchange
EUR/USD = 1.2110
GBP/USD = 1.4704
USD/JPY = 91.3630
USD/CAD= 1.0308
EUR/JPY = 110.6369

Equity Index Futures
Nikkei 225- 9,590.00 +80.00
Hang Sang- 19,687.00 +143.00
SPI 200 - 4,509.00 +68.00

Thoughts
Today I was in partnership meetings for most of the morning and did not add or subtract any positions from my portfolio. However, my SPX calls continued to rally (over 16.5%!) and I will ride them for a bit longer. Also, my short Nat Gas position did well. Though, my short USO position has not payed off well. I'll keep you posted on that one.

Tonight we have game 4. The Lake Show will dominate once again. To quote the illustrious Jeff Van Gundy "this is a first quarter league." Look for The Black Mamba make frequent trips to the charity stripe early and often.

Related ETF's: United States Oil Fund LP (USO:US), United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG:US), United States 12 Month Natural Gas Fund LP (UNL:US)


Patrick M. Ambrus
Managing Partner
Analyze Capital LLC
Twitter: AnalyzeCapital

China Motivates Everyone?

"China’s May Exports Rise 48.5%, Property Prices Jump"

Via Bloomberg:

Exports gained 48.5 percent in May from a year earlier, the customs bureau said today, more than the 32 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 32 economists. None expected such a big gain. Real-estate prices rose 12.4 percent across 70 cities, the statistics bureau said separately.

It is really impressive to see China has gained 48.5% exports in May as all the crisis happening in the worldwide. This good news motivates the stock market, shown in today's US stock market rally. Investor may be more confident of a global economic recovery.


Liz T. Liu
Summer Analyst
Analyze Capital LLC

Oil Rises Along With Chinese Exports

Reuters:
Oil settled more than 3 percent higher to top $74 on Wednesday after a report of buoyant Chinese exports eased concerns over the pace of growth in the world's No. 2 oil consumer and data showed a drawdown in U.S. crude inventories.

Chinese exports grew about 50 percent from a year earlier in May, sources told Reuters on Wednesday, in a sign the economy of the second-largest oil user was roaring ahead.
The export figure in the Reuters report, which came ahead of Thursday's official release, far exceeded expectations and fueled a rise in stock markets globally.

Further support came after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a 1.8 million barrel drop in crude inventories, confirming an earlier report by the American Petroleum Institute of a hefty crude draw.

U.S. crude for July delivery settled at $74.38 a barrel, up $2.39, off earlier highs of $74.96.

July ICE Brent settled at $74.27 a barrel, up $1.97


China’s economic growth remains strong and is a significant factor in determining oil prices. Demand from China and the US may be key in determining oil prices this summer. However, it is important to note that factors from the supply-side are equally important. OPEC recently lowered is estimates for world oil demand in 2010 and has refrained from changing its output quotas. Currently, OPEC members are supplying more than the set quota.

Daniel A.
Summer Analyst
Analyze Capital LLC

First Thoughts on Merkel's Address

Via WSJ:

The measure spent much of the session above that level but quickly fell through it as Ms. Merkel defended Germany's €80 billion austerity package for the next four years, saying Wednesday that the time to withdraw stimulus has come and lessons from the debt crisis must be learned.

Investors said Ms. Merkel's comments that the bailout package only buys time for the euro zone spooked the market. Coming from Germany, considered the strongest economy in Europe, the remarks underscore the euro zone's problems.

If this signals the start of austerity for Europe, so much the better, as long as the necessary measures are still taken by politicians should something unexpected happen to the economy. What does this affect the big picture？

• Under macroeconomic theory, a combination of tight fiscal policy and loose monetary policy is likely to depreciate the currency of a country.
• This adds some fun to the game of euro, as we see FX responding immediately; however,
• A depreciating currency is beneficial to economic recovery, and corresponds to recent export-oriented recovery schemes.

If you ask me, I'd say the woman from Germany has got some guts. Politics is one of the rare field where saying something actually has the equal, if not more, weight as doing something. Her defense for the austerity plan changes the tone of the game, and might have the extensive influence of pushing other European countries to follow suit. After all Germany has the healthiest balance sheet of the continent. As Europe adjusts its debt level by adopting a tight fiscal policy, and given that the rest of the world is likely to grow at a higher pace economically, we should be more confident that the euro will becomes weaker in the future.

Yi Gao
SUmmer Analyst
Analyze Capital LLC

U.S. Policy-Makers vs. The RMB

Via Bloomberg:

The U.S. Senate will vote within two weeks on a measure aimed at getting China to raise the value of its currency, Senator Charles Schumer of New York said today.

Lawmakers are prodding President Barack Obama to take a tougher line on China, which has held the value of the yuan at about 6.83 to the dollar since July 2008. Senator Sherrod Brown, an Ohio Democrat, has said a weak yuan gives Chinese exporters an unfair advantage over their U.S. competitors.

This vote will lead to a significant change. If China has to raise the currency exchange rate, the economy will hurt a lot. It may as someone would say, "lead to a disaster". The Chinese government has refused to allow the Yuan to appreciate many times. The negative results for China to raise the value of RMB are strong and direct:

- Reduction of exporting; exporting supports GDP growth and employment, and thus destabilizing society
- The economic model of China is typically of the investing pull economy. If the RMB appreciates, the cost of production will increase and FDI will decrease immediately
- China is still the biggest "factory" for the world and US consumers. The appreciation of the Yuan will directly affect product pricing
- The sudden appreciation will destroy the balance of demand and supply in China and lead to inflation

Liz T. Liu
Summer Analyst
Analyze Capital LLC

Greek Default

Via Bloomberg:

Global investors have little confidence in Europe’s efforts to contain its debt crisis or in European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, with 73 percent calling a default by Greece likely.

Only 23 percent say they expect the region’s almost $1 trillion rescue package to both keep the European monetary union together and prevent a debt default by a government, according to a quarterly poll of investors and analysts who are Bloomberg subscribers. More than 40 percent say Greece is likely to abandon the euro.

I don't think the sovereign debt panic will affect The United States economic recovery. It is possible, as the survey showed, the crisis will be "a significant step that leads to an eventual breakup of the euro zone."

Liz T. Liu
Summer Analyst
Analyze Capital LLC