Thursday, January 22, 2015

Repost from elsewhere - Jan 23, 2015 - lets get back into it

  • uncharted territories
  • no value in these earnings
  • correction to real leg up needed to get full extension on trend (think waves)
  • Still relatively cheap given highs and history
  • Smart buys at 1400-1500
hedge on inverses

look for the values on drop

Short term trend looks very weak. First two quarters retrace? Buy in? How to play first and second quarter in terms of portfolio allocation?

The year 2014 is just the extension of the raging bull form 2013, but is there any valitity here? NO fundamentals going into the trend. Need to confirm with volume analysis and sentiment indicators. 

Gut feeling says BS on the year leg up. Smart money exiting waiting for crash given last quarter performance 2014. Lots of nice long covering from Oct 2014. 

Trend actually extends from 2012 bull market. Post sovereign debt = us economy driven sentiment. Pent up unused capital became less risk averse with no where to go. US seems good? ok why not... lots of werid stuff going on in currencies. Lots of mixed indicators dollar strength and commos makes sense but equities not following... slow convergence. 

Will like to see this baby crash be full fully going in.

Maybe good plays to start getting back in the game is to short the dollar. Will look into how to get this exposure later if thesis makes sense. 

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