Monday, September 30, 2013

GIS - OCT 1 2013

Old chart from last week - 3 year weekly chart

Lets look at the long term chart and top down fundamentals:
  • Strong strong trend past 3 years
  • Long term chart says correction needed
  • Likely correction longer term out
  • 60% of top line from US --> how is consumption in staples?
  • How are commodities prices? Is there pressure? If pressure what spill over can we expect?
  • Inflation indicates probably no price pressure, Fed confirms with policy (however there are divergences from individual commos markets to equities, must look more carefully)
  • How is growth expansion abroad? Can GIS diversify revenue further?
It would be nice to see longer historical price trends. No thoughts no calls, no HW done.

Saturday, September 21, 2013

Rambling Thoughts

I love the divergence of equities and commodities seen from 2012 and 2013. Break from historical correlation leaves rooms for many ways to make more money and a more interesting dynamic to look at. Time to start looking back at fx and commos again.

PCLN - Sept 21 2013 - 3 Year Weekly Chart

  • Look at this awesome trend
  • We are looking for a 10 - 15% correction at these levels
  • Buy on big correction --> very possible can get a strong second leg of dumb money going up after correction
  • Risk to thesis - interesting volume action August 2012
  • Lack of strong volume confirmation on last leg
  • Above risk probably indicative of correction as mentioned above

  • Look to fundamentals to confirm despite irrational exuberance

AMZN Update - Sept 21 2013

  • Close above break in resistance = confirmation of healthy trend
  • Conservative look for a few days closes around 320+

BBRY - Sept 21 2013

  • Looking very good for buyout candidate
  • Easy to get on cheap valuations
  • Definitely entries at or below historical support from 1 year go (sept 2012)
  • Company needs to be revamped
  • New strategy sounds desperate and little add value and even if it works it has limited upside to profits unless they cut beyond current plans...

Tuesday, September 10, 2013

SYMC update 9/10/2013

  • I remember from back in 2006 that SYMC responds well to technicals
  • Overall SYMC is a shit stock from what I understood
  • However, despite any bad fundamentals strong technicals could prevail in the short term
  • Gaps like this usually don't lie and is in tact with overall recent uptrend ( see below)
  • Break in resistance, profit covering --> back to support
  • We looking at green buy zone
Nice, trend dude:

  • Given the nature of the STRONG trend from June last year... its possible the above scenario would need to be a short term buy. Enough to get you over 27 for sure. 
  • If you believe in Waves, this trend looks like its going to collapse
  • Short term buy
  • Watch closely to catch the first leg of shorts

Friday, September 6, 2013

MSFT update SEP 6 2013

Shallow thoughts:

  • Smart money is gone now which begs...
  • Is Ballmer leaving really a fundamentally good thing for the company?
  • If yes, buy at support or below support because its value realized over a longer period?
Look to longer picture for technical buys...

Very interesting gaps. Strong volume gap down, strong volume gap up however couldn't breach resistance. Again, look for longer term plays here. Looks like of sideways roller-coastering from here in the short to medium term. 
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