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Saturday, September 21, 2013

PCLN - Sept 21 2013 - 3 Year Weekly Chart


  • Look at this awesome trend
  • We are looking for a 10 - 15% correction at these levels
  • Buy on big correction --> very possible can get a strong second leg of dumb money going up after correction
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  • Risk to thesis - interesting volume action August 2012
  • Lack of strong volume confirmation on last leg
  • Above risk probably indicative of correction as mentioned above
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  • Look to fundamentals to confirm despite irrational exuberance


AMZN Update - Sept 21 2013


  • Close above break in resistance = confirmation of healthy trend
  • Conservative look for a few days closes around 320+


BBRY - Sept 21 2013


  • Looking very good for buyout candidate
  • Easy to get on cheap valuations
  • Definitely entries at or below historical support from 1 year go (sept 2012)
  • Company needs to be revamped
  • New strategy sounds desperate and little add value and even if it works it has limited upside to profits unless they cut beyond current plans...


Tuesday, September 10, 2013

SYMC update 9/10/2013


  • I remember from back in 2006 that SYMC responds well to technicals
  • Overall SYMC is a shit stock from what I understood
  • However, despite any bad fundamentals strong technicals could prevail in the short term
  • Gaps like this usually don't lie and is in tact with overall recent uptrend ( see below)
  • Break in resistance, profit covering --> back to support
  • We looking at green buy zone
Nice, trend dude:


  • Given the nature of the STRONG trend from June last year... its possible the above scenario would need to be a short term buy. Enough to get you over 27 for sure. 
  • If you believe in Waves, this trend looks like its going to collapse
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Summary
  • Short term buy
  • Watch closely to catch the first leg of shorts




Friday, September 6, 2013

MSFT update SEP 6 2013


Shallow thoughts:

  • Smart money is gone now which begs...
  • Is Ballmer leaving really a fundamentally good thing for the company?
  • If yes, buy at support or below support because its value realized over a longer period?
Look to longer picture for technical buys...

Very interesting gaps. Strong volume gap down, strong volume gap up however couldn't breach resistance. Again, look for longer term plays here. Looks like of sideways roller-coastering from here in the short to medium term. 

Friday, August 23, 2013

5 Month Laters AMZN - AUG 23 2013

BOOM

My only and best call for 2013.

See quote from Post: "AMZN Update April 2nd 2013 Update"

"If support can hold up trend still in tact = Buy in 240-250's range. Depending on how strong conviction is or trading style (waiting for confirmation on up swing, pre-emp buy in before move, scale in slowly pyramid up on confirmation). "


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Buy in at 240 - 250 was the correct zone to buy in. The trend materialized one month later in May for the buy zone and unfolded through MAY --> JUNE --> JULY. Finally, the short term trend peaked out in the 310 range making about a 20 - 30% gain on price from buy in zone to peak.

Hell, the trend still looks healthy to me. However, we are exploring uncharted areas in the 300+ range. Fundamentally is AMZN sound? I dunno, but management still remains strong and if the core values are still there we should continue to see continued long term uptrend.

No comments on current correction in play. Possible pyramiding area if you buy into the continued up trend in the short term... hell look at the S&P500 this past year. Crazy stuff. (remind me to not say this is a call... NO BACK TRADING... more of light observations)

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Longer long term view... hmmm, get that gut feeling that internet is going to be another bubble either that theres just too much possible collapsable focus in the space despite there seemingly being more grounded reasons to be in internet vs. circa 99 - 00's ...
 
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