Repost from elsewhere - Jan 23, 2015 - lets get back into it

• uncharted territories
• no value in these earnings
• correction to real leg up needed to get full extension on trend (think waves)
• Still relatively cheap given highs and history
• Smart buys at 1400-1500

hedge on inverses

look for the values on drop

Short term trend looks very weak. First two quarters retrace? Buy in? How to play first and second quarter in terms of portfolio allocation?

The year 2014 is just the extension of the raging bull form 2013, but is there any valitity here? NO fundamentals going into the trend. Need to confirm with volume analysis and sentiment indicators. 

Gut feeling says BS on the year leg up. Smart money exiting waiting for crash given last quarter performance 2014. Lots of nice long covering from Oct 2014. 

Trend actually extends from 2012 bull market. Post sovereign debt = us economy driven sentiment. Pent up unused capital became less risk averse with no where to go. US seems good? ok why not... lots of werid stuff going on in currencies. Lots of mixed indicators dollar strength and commos makes sense but equities not following... slow convergence. 

Will like to see this baby crash be full fully going in.

Maybe good plays to start getting back in the game is to short the dollar. Will look into how to get this exposure later if thesis makes sense. 

BBRY - Update 2013

http://analyzecapital.blogspot.com/2013/09/bbry-sept-21-2013.html

Called it


blackberry-reportedly-in-talks-with-google-samsung-and-others-about-buyout

 

• Price rapidly approaching buy zone. Another 1.50+ off  and I think its fair game to buy
• Unlikely deals will sour unless management is that bad... given company performance perhaps it wouldn't' be surprising if they did
• I think other exits are unlikely and they will be forced to sell cheap
• Negative scrutiny from MSFT NOK deal
• Lots of short term pressures to see price go further down = better value in buy once deal goes through

GIS - OCT 1 2013

Old chart from last week - 3 year weekly chart

 

Lets look at the long term chart and top down fundamentals:

• Strong strong trend past 3 years
• Long term chart says correction needed
• Likely correction longer term out
• 60% of top line from US --> how is consumption in staples?
• How are commodities prices? Is there pressure? If pressure what spill over can we expect?
• Inflation indicates probably no price pressure, Fed confirms with policy (however there are divergences from individual commos markets to equities, must look more carefully)
• How is growth expansion abroad? Can GIS diversify revenue further?

It would be nice to see longer historical price trends. No thoughts no calls, no HW done.

Rambling Thoughts

I love the divergence of equities and commodities seen from 2012 and 2013. Break from historical correlation leaves rooms for many ways to make more money and a more interesting dynamic to look at. Time to start looking back at fx and commos again.

PCLN - Sept 21 2013 - 3 Year Weekly Chart

• Look at this awesome trend
• We are looking for a 10 - 15% correction at these levels
• Buy on big correction --> very possible can get a strong second leg of dumb money going up after correction

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• Risk to thesis - interesting volume action August 2012
• Lack of strong volume confirmation on last leg
• Above risk probably indicative of correction as mentioned above

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• Look to fundamentals to confirm despite irrational exuberance

AMZN Update - Sept 21 2013

• Close above break in resistance = confirmation of healthy trend
• Conservative look for a few days closes around 320+

BBRY - Sept 21 2013

• Looking very good for buyout candidate
• Easy to get on cheap valuations
• Definitely entries at or below historical support from 1 year go (sept 2012)
• Company needs to be revamped
• New strategy sounds desperate and little add value and even if it works it has limited upside to profits unless they cut beyond current plans...