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Tuesday, September 25, 2007

Quick scan of s&p 500 chart:

Taking the S&P 500 on the max chart, the general chart is saying up trend. Though we are once again hitting resistance of 1550-1555. Starting at after 2001, during the crash, there seems to be a upward trend from august until the new year, where it which then experiences a downtrend. This trend continues to reoccur till present day. Though each year it is less and less prevalent and after January now makes more of a sideways trend. already we are seeing this trend, from June through July with the credit and sub prime problems dropped and hit support level of 1370 in August. Already an upward move is in place, i believe there to be enough momentum to carry this through to the new year.

In general there are enough fundamentals of the economy to reflect this move bullish idea, though it is very likely the markets will be moving out of sync with the true fundamentals.
I'm sure this upcoming month one can price in that auto sales will not be as reflective as they used to with the GM UAW strikes. Though an increase in market share of Japanese cars such as Toyota will be interesting to watch. As far as attributing to signs of economic growth one can discount it. As usual housing will be a slump, though if the Feds can produce another rate cut, I'm sure it would help housing to an extent. People should be able to take this advantage and refinance their mortgages with lower interest rates. It is already quite possible the bond markets will be factoring in another cut. As shown before, it may take more than simple fed cuts to fix this problem. If the Fed's keep cutting they may make a weak foundation that may present a great shorting opportunity later if this is correct. Though if perhaps if the mortgage discipline can sort this mess out properly right now can be a great buying opportunity as long as one has knowledge of what he she is investing in.

Though the mixed sentiment on the markets maybe shifting to more toward a bearish view which may spread more and more if credit problems keep surfacing. If anything sentiment could kill the model i presented earlier. I am sure retail reports shall point to a weak consumer, this maybe the certainly the case for now, but by next year the lag effect of the recent cuts should be able to buoy the economy. In short term the economy maybe very stale but in general i feel there will be stronger growth to come. Global growth will help keep the US chugging along 2% or a little more.

Short term bear in other words.

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