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Monday, October 29, 2007

Entry for October 29, 2007

As the markets are expecting a rate cut markets are rising which worries me in a sentimental analytical view point. Such attitudes sets up a fragile foundation for such bullish moves as nothing confirmed yet.

The dollar vs the euro will continue to weaken ahead of the Fed decision. Depending on a 25 or 50 basis cut the dollar will continue its decline more moderately with a 25 basis point cut vs a 50 which would cause more significant downward pressure.

Interestingly the dollar is strengthening vs the yen. Consensus seems to be from Japanese investors willing to take on more risky investments. Further weakening of the yen will definitely be seen with the cutting of interest rates, though one can argue much of this is already priced in the markets as reflected as the current sentiment in us equity markets.

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