Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Entry for June 19, 2008

It would seem for the past four days following my last entry i was wrong as the US equity markets rallied for 3 days and stalled on the 4th day. I underestimated the power of some interim reports like retail sales that added to some bullishness for those days. However for the past to days the markets have taken a sour turn. It seems though as of now, the support of 1328 on the S&P500 is holding, and the bigger question remains is if there is enough to momentum to push th equity indexes lower to 1300 or 1315. These market fluctuations are in part tied to sentiment pertaining to oil prices or at least correlated. it seems those four days that the market rallied prices of crude pulled back to 133 and now is currently back around 137 per barrel. The EIA petroleum status report may have a impact on the upward movements if data contradicts it, though if consensus is inline with the supply reports, new levels will be seen. As levels of 139.00+ were reached levels in the the 140's is more likely.

Other possible economic reports that may affect equity indexes are jobless claims or possibly the leading economic indicator (LEI). Though i have never been a strong believer in the accuracy of the LEI, though it may add to enough bearish sentiment to continue any downward momentum.

Though, overall equity index performance may be nonsensically skewed as this end of the week is quadruple witching. Reading into any economic/finance signs this weak may be no indicator for next weeks performance.

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