Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Entry for July 9, 2008

On Monday, Bearish Sentiment indeed carry on through from the previous week. The extra holiday might have lead into Mondays trading as the S&P500 lows hit around 1240 and closed at 1252, which is a -.7% change from the close at last Thursday before July 4th. However, yesterday (the 8th of july) the markets were up 1.7% at 1273. Based of the close the S&P500 indeed are trading within the 1250 and 1280 range I previously mentioned. Though as I also previously said I expect the S&P500 to end on the high side by the end of the week of at least 1280 or more. I would consider the S&P500 trading in the stated range to be "trading sideways." Though these swings in my opinion are quite volatile (large and fast moves).

^--- written during the day in Vietnam or night in America

Continuing at night in Vietnam, during next trading day in America...

(ll:50 pm Vietnam time). Currently the equity markets are sending mix signals again. the DOW is down -.07% while the S&P500 was up a few minutes ago but now is down -.15%. If the S&P500 can end on a higher close than yesterdays close and the DOW closes lower, this could indicate further movement down for Thursday trading if there is a long enough lower shadow with a shorter upper shadow at the close of Wednesday today. Fundamentals certainly warrant further downward movement, however if the s&p500 does end up higher this may be indicative of bigger moves to the upside to come, or indicative of improving conditions.

There is much weak data coming economically and from financial sectors and a divergence of these fundamentals from the markets and economic may show a decoupling of the bear mode the markets have been with poor economic data equaling poor performance in the equity markets (wheres in bull markets you can see more divergence of economic data and moves in markets). However, this analysis may be a bit premature of naive as this is very short term and some more consistencies of this trend may need to be established before unfolding.

So currently I am waiting for the results of Thursday and Friday to assess my performance from last weeks analysis...

However, on other note, I unfortunately had neglected to follow up on oil, making it hard to gauge my performance as I missed out on a very large decline in crude oil prices. While my call of oil being in the 140's range was correct, which now may be meaningless since I did not follow up and missed a nice shorting opportunity. However, I feel that oil will be revisiting the 140 range again over the next two weeks, though this call is not coming from any analysis of the oil markets or economic analysis...

Recently I have been able to access some currency charts which I missed so dearly, since I have had such a poor internet connection here...I did have some analysis for last week but, now the the environment has changed and I need to revisit the charts again. Unfortunately (when busy)and fortunately (when bored) such is the nature of the forex marekets constantly changing making hard it hard follow when busy at work. I think I will go to bed now and hopefully sometime at the end of this week or next week I will be able to start covering or shifting to currencies...

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