Monday, October 27, 2008

Just a quick post today, Ive been doing really well on two short positions on ICE brent and gasoil, along with a short on s&p500 futures, based off a quick analysis last night there is no need to cover as yet, though as the day progresses I will check to see if i need to adjust my positions. According to 3 period simple moving average analysis there was still downward momentum, this confirmed a squeeze in the BB of 2 standard deviations. I also used the RSI as seeing if the market was over sold. Considering the RSI I showed markets still have room to fall, though I would not weigh this indicator as heavily as others. The MACD showed large enough volume to accompany the recent falls in the markets. This still confirms the extremes bearish sentiment and poor fundamentals in the economy.

On another note, currencies, I made some great shorts on a few pairs tied with the dollar few days ago (AUD/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/USD) As I don't have time to go into the details I will briefly explain. Only a few of the them were based of shorter term chart analysis using 60 min charts, while others were inline with overall down trends. However, I closed my position short since there seems to be strong conflict on the monthly charts vs short term charts on all these pairs. The last time I've seen such a divergence was during the summer on the USD/JPY, which eventually lead to a piercing of lower 2 deviation BB, and a long term rally that lasted through the summer with highs hitting around 110. I will sit out on the currency markets for now and hold cash since these markets require much more constant monitoring vs S&P500 futures, or a down trending oil market.

Though, this may be interesting since I do feel currency markets are good future indicators since they are most liquid and 24 going. Any big moves in the currency markets maybe indicative of whats to come in other markets.

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