Sunday, May 31, 2009

S&P500 Weekly Commentary June Quarter 3 begins

Quick notes (3 finals down 1 to go):

Interesting stuff with GM, I wonder how much this is all priced in the equity markets. I haven't followed any news or blogs for so long now. My play last week turned out quite well early on and I hit my profit target, if such an option existed that I mentioned I would have made good on those proceeds as well. Mid week the early highs of 910+ were killed, but friday turned out with a kick in the butt surprise ending on 919! I don't even know where this move came from, but we definitely are seeing interesting pattern formations!

The past month one can argue has been trading sideways, its looks as if the markets are preparing to decide where to take the S&P500 for the rest of the year. These bullish short term moves are not to convincing with a lack of volume conviction, while in the past month the big down days such as may 20 and may 7th have quite a bit of volume to their moves. Im sure if I had time to check bollinger bands, the standard deviations are coming to a squeeze.

Im noticing an interesting trend in SMA, last week I think I mentioned at 30 and 165 SMA crossover for short term support. Currently the 165 increased to 175 to being as close as possible to get a cross under at 30 SMA support. With this increased trend maybe in the next two weeks we will see a price cross over the 200 SMA, which would be more reason to be bullish longer term.

The RSI on the Daily charts are staying above the 50 Mark after bouncing off it a few times during the week. This is indication for further bullish movement.

The MACD, though it maybe a bit early to say, is certainly possibilty indicatining bullish convergence in their longer and hsort term averages.

Quite possibily we are seeing percieved support at 880 or real support at 877 (my orginal support). This level has held quite nicely over the past few weeks and is part of the reason I maintained bullish stances short term.

However, because of this this will be making risk/reward ratios bigger, espically with short term resistence. However, my ideas of 910 resistence were totally blown outta the water on late day trading friday (too bad i dont' have time to look further into this).

If support at 877 maintains, I forecast that this week will test resistence at 930's, however I do expect a 1-2% drop mid week (if support holds) Something simiarly seen on may 27, 2009.

Hopefully all this craptacular news is priced in the markets, even still its possible the bulls with defend their beloved support...


This week I will give no strategy plays, after my finals I will continue with them though!

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