Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Spot Forex daily Commentary - July 15, 2009

Made some bets against the dollar on MT4 last night on the 14th. Through the day it proved that I made the right call. I guess after I left work the Aussie decided to move out of whack and trade down for the short term opposite to the other major pairs current short term trends.

Overall, I will be long on the Aussie, and the same goes for the pound. I swear I had entered a short for the looney but I guess I must have hesitated on conflicting indicators. Considering the whole "bear on the dollar" theme I should have just shorted it, though I didn't bother with correlation studies.

To be honest All pairs are screaming bear on the dollar over the next few weeks. Though Arguably on the EUR we are getting conflict on short term indicators as by the end of the week the EUR may hit highs in the 1.41XX + to 1.42 and then retrace. The conflict being between short term bearish pattern formation versus possible bullish trend developments. Considering the other major pairs and the RSI Id be leaning towards dollar weakness thus confirming the bullish trend develop, and short term indicators just maybe temporary whipsaws out of trend.

The Aussie and the Pound are definitely trend wise and indicator wise bullish.

Interestingly we are seeing a fundamental economic divergence between the US economy and the Canadian economy or perhaps oil prices are currently more relevant to the Canadian Currency. It looks to me as if the dollar is set to advance against the looney.


I apologize for my jumbled thoughts, as I post more Spot Forex Updates Ill be more precise and organized in my blogs.

As of now, I expect the Aussie to gain back what I'm currently loosing over the next week. While I question the trend of the EUR though it seems to be favorably bullish in relation to other major pairs. The Pound definitely has room to continue upward into 1.65.

For now I'll opt out of the CAD. The yen I also will opt out of since its correlation is out of sync right now.

Hopefully tomorrow I can provide some charts and annotations.


Terrible mistake on the AUD I used the shortcut key and entered a short vs a long. Luckily this is all on paper only. I know one of my friends have entered real trades opposite to what he wanted even though his analysis and call were correct. Goes to show how carelessness can lead to disaster. Even though I was just playing around and was only trying to catch trends and swing in a sideways market, this experienced how serious and how much concentration one needs as one tiny mistake can ruin it all. These are the benefits of paper trading, a good lesson learned that I will carry with me for the rest of my life.

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