Friday, October 9, 2009

Food for Thought: SPX and USD - Market Direction 10.09.09

This morning I spent a substantial amount of time looking at stock charts from various sectors in order to decipher the mystery that is the S&P 500. I looked at the SPY, XBI, XLF, GS, AAPL, GOOG, AMZN, QQQQ, IWM, MDY, and VIX. Undoubtedly, the market is overbought. It is overbought from a fundamental valuation standpoint . Technical Analysis of these charts support this thesis. Especially, when examining the SPX and $USD. Though one can argue the SPX is in a bullish trend, the index is yet to show markets it can break resistance around 1075. As for the USD, the chart shows a bottom forming very soon with momentum trending upward. I maintain my position in cash for the time being until I unlock Standard & Poor's Box .



  1. Wow, this is a an excellent post pat, definitely good thoughts on the longer picture of the USD basket int erms of weekly. we should also throw up a weekly on the spx to get comparable time frames. Definitely will incorporate this into my next analysis.


  2. it will probably be a good idea to start running some correlations on the spx vs the dollar to see if the correlation is starting to trend downwards and then find some fundamental reasoning for this.

  3. i did an intertemporal analysis on the SPX, now I need to do a intermarket analysis. i.e. the dollar vs the SPX. We got some good stuff on the my man!

  4. I havn't been on the bloomberg in ages it feels like. All these midterms suck. I do agree a correlation is needed.


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