Thursday, December 3, 2009

Scripting The Future- 12/3/2009

Initial Jobless claims via Bloomberg:

Initial jobless claims fell 5,000 in the Nov. 28 week to 457,000, extending a run of impressive improvement that points squarely at improvement for total payrolls (prior week revised 4,000 lower). The four-week week average is lagging despite falling 14,250 in the week to 481,250. Continuing claims for the Nov. 21 week rose slightly to 5.465 million with the insured-workers unemployment rate steady at 4.1 percent, well down from a summer peak of 5.2 percent. The slight gain in continuing claims hardly puts a dent into 10 prior weeks of improvement, improvement reflecting new hiring but also, and likely to a large degree, the expiration of benefits. Those receiving extended benefits rose nearly 60,000 to just under 600,000 in data for the Nov. 14 week. Markets moved higher but only briefly in reaction to the report, one that will firm expectations for solid improvement in tomorrow's November employment report.

Initial claims were 28,000 less then consensus estimates from Bloomberg analysts. Are we finally leveling off? Probably not. However, I do expect to see Initial Jobless claims stay in the 450k-375k range for the remainder of 2009 and well into 2010.

More to come later in the day...


Patrick M. Ambrus
Analyze Capital LLC
Managing Partner

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