Via Bloomberg:
Today's durables report is showing the manufacturing sector continuing to slowly gain momentum. Despite a December gain, the immediate question for the markets is whether a disappointment on headline expectations is offset by upward revisions to November and favorable detail for December. New orders for durable goods in December rebounded 0.3 percent after a revised 0.4 percent drop in November. The November number had previously been estimated to be a 0.7 percent decline. However, the December gain fell short of the market forecast for a 1.6 percent spike. But weakness was the lack of a rebound in Boeing orders. Excluding the transportation component, new durables orders advanced another 0.9 percent, following a 2.1 percent rebound in November.
Despite a shortfall in headline expectations for December, upward revisions to November, a jump in ex-transportation in December and another gain in nondefense capital goods ex aircraft may turn the report into a net positive-even compared to overall expectations. However, initial jobless claims were worse than expected.
In my mind the biggest question is how long will it take for inventories to wind down to the bone? When that happens, what will the economic environment look like?
Patrick M. Ambrus
Managing Partner
Analyze Capital LLC
ambrus.anlzgroup@gmail.com
No comments:
Post a Comment