Friday, February 5, 2010

Employment Situation/Currency and Commodity update- 2/5/10

Via Bloomberg:
Today's employment report had conflicting trends between the payroll numbers and the household survey. Although the unemployment rate fell unexpectedly, payroll jobs continue to contract. Nonfarm payroll employment in January fell 20,000, following a revised 150,000 drop in December and revised gain of 64,000 for November. In the previous employment situation report, December showed an 85,000 drop and November rose 4,000. However, today's report contains annual revisions and they were down significantly. The December payroll decrease fell short of the consensus forecast for no change in payroll jobs.

The December decline was led by 60,000 drop in the goods-producing sector which included a 75,000 decrease in construction. Manufacturing employment actually rose 11,000 after a 23,000 fall the month before. Mining advanced 4,000 in the latest month.

The service providing sector rebounded 48,000 after dropping 69,000 in December. The biggest gain in the latest month was in professional & business services with a 44,000 increase, including a 52,000 boost in temp help. This jump in temps may be the biggest positive in today's report. Temp hiring tends to be a leading indicator for overall payrolls. A sizable gain of 42,000 also was seen in retail trade.

An improvement in the headline employment rate but a further loss in jobs? Not great data. Equity markets rallied early on the news, however fears about the European economic climate and domestic recovery have the markets spooked.

The USD strengthened against all 16 major pairings and continues its climb.
EUR/USD- 1.3619 (-.75%)
USD/JPY- 89.346 (+.33%)
GBP/USD- 1.5626 (-.81%)

NYMEX Crude for March delivery was fighting marginal losses early in the trading session but has since declined sharply sitting at $70.65/barrel down 3.40% on the session. Natural Gas rallied early due to concerns over the "stormagedon" predicted to crush the east coast. Currently prices stand on the positive side @ 5.52/ British thermal unit up 1.96% on the session.

Patrick M. Ambrus
Managing Partner
Analyze Capital LLC

No comments:

Post a Comment

This Blog has been developed by Analyze Capital LLC, and as an independent organization we provide “AS IS” information without warranty. The ideas and opinions expressed by the contributers of this blog are personal and do not represent the actions or policies of Analyze Capital LLC. The contents of this blog do not intend to assert recommendations or to offer advice of any kind. We are not responsible the consequences, be they gains or losses, that may result from using any of the information from this blog.