Monday, May 17, 2010

Forecast update: May 17, 2010

From May 3rd I have said: Long the Dollar: Long Airlines: and short Oil:

(Also, not forgetting to mention that I've been expecting the SPX to correct since March, after being wrong for about a month, it feels good to be on the right side - all things considered, starting to be more bullish on the SPX now - need to evaluate for a bottom and look up some calls).




Not much to update: I've been right on all my calls so far:

Short Oil
Long Airlines
Long Dollar

However, I will say that dollar is looking super duper over bought. I would expect a pull back bring that bad boy into a new range. The Eur is at 08 crises levels. Considering thats the lowest it pulled to, I won't think it will go below that, UNLESS, people really have no faith left in the EURZONE, which I will say is highly possible so we may see the EUR dip into the high teens if that is the case. For now, ill be expecting a whipsaw where we get temp dollar weakness, however, I need to do deeper analysis to see if everything is still within their trending behaviors.

Here is my old analysis for those who want to double check my performance:


Alexander Lê
Managing Partner
Analyze Capital LLC

1 comment:

  1. In terms of temp dollar weakness it has yet to come the tweens are inded here! ... Still waiting on this overbought scenario to correct itself


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