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Monday, May 3, 2010

ICE BRENT Technical update: May 03, 2010

Commodity Futures Charts

Short term for ICE brent seems short term bullish (currently against my short oil/long airline industry thesis), at least on the daily chart going into May... too bad I can't get a longer range on this bad boy.

It will probably take the rest of summer for my thesis to play out if I am correct, it is some what arguably topsy if longer term resistance is present.

What this chart needs is confirmation of the supply/demand balance, which my colleague Pat will inform us in detail after finals. If a supply shock occurs (more than expected oil supply due to overestimation) from OPEC due to the US oil spills, this could confirm lower prices as summer demand picks up and the economy shows more robust economic numbers... (look for those econ indicators where oil is inherently important - directly or indirectly)

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