U.S. posts 19th straight monthly budget deficit
Dollar Weakness??
Its kinda funny how I didn't connect A to B from my last post about taxes: Tax Bills in 2009 Lowest since 1950
Thats the kind of opportunities macro event driven guys should be looking for.
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Alexander Lê
Managing Partner
Analyze Capital LLC
email: analyzecapital@gmail.com
This effect may take a few days to play out in the FX markets, interestingly enough, even though its quiet hours in the states, FX markets seem pretty calm and continue to focus on EURZONE worries, it seems that EUR is revisiting lows pre bailout announcement and the perhaps the euphoria of brown stepping down has worn off as the GBP is back to highs post step down annoucement. Yen is seemingly continuing its upward spiral as moves in a long year to year trend are in tack. Interestingly enough fundamentals and bullishness in HF performance seem to show resilience in the Japan related markets... On an another interesting note the EUR is considerably stronger vs the Yen than the dollar. I wonder what fundamentals is reflected in the price for this to occur? Perhaps a long term arb opportunity if this is a trend that needs to be corrected on a long term basis?
ReplyDeleteOh one more note I forgot to mention, if this markets are really discounting a 4X larger monthly change in budget deficit for whatever factors... that is truly worrisome in light of the sovereign debt crises we are seeing around the world. Only of course if this trend continues (a continually increasing budget deficit). Perhaps, people aren't pricing in the fact that china is tightening credit and may have a lessened appetite for US treasuries? Better watch those capital account numbers...
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