Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Consumer Confidence-06.29.2010

The Conference Board's consumer confidence report is a major disappointment, falling dramatically and showing regional weakness tied no doubt to the Gulf spill. The consumer confidence index fell to 52.9, in a nearly 10 point decline the size of which usually corresponds with an economic shock. The decline was led by severe weakness in the East South Central (37.7 June vs. 56.0 May) and the South Atlantic (49.1 vs. 62.8). But other regions are weak too including significant drops in the Mid-Atlantic and Pacific regions.

Equities are selling off hard. The SPX is currently down below 1047. Can 1040 support hold? I believe so. When it does, I will get long via SPX calls in preparation for a relief rally. The VIX is hovering above 30 for the first time sine the week of June 7th.

Who forecasts these reports anyway? Good luck trading today.

Patrick M. Ambrus
Analyze Capital LLC

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