Monday, July 26, 2010

Thoughts on Transition

Last week was a week of transition; global Equity prices resumed their rally, “Helicopter Ben” and his contrarian co-pilots hinted at more Quantitative Easing, and The Financial Times unleashed a scrumptious morsel of protein packed debates on austerity vs. stimulus from bloodthirsty alpha-economists. What else is new?

Circumstances and situations change fast:

1. BP Gulf Oil Spill- Tony Hayward gone
2. Goldman Sachs – mediocre earnings
3. Euro Stress Tests- unleashed

Who cares, right!? The aforementioned circumstances defiantly dominated the financial, economic, business, and global-political headlines for the better part of the second quarter all while instilling fear, scandal, and panic into the hearts’ of ubiquitous market participants. Which stories will produce future catalysts that influence future irrational behavior of financial markets? Rather, what’s next?

I cannot say for sure or even offer a robust prediction. My lone thought; politicians will scrutinize the U.S. economic recovery. Midterm elections draw near. It is almost time for another round of Obamanomics. Here are a few things to be mindful of while trading this week:

• Consumer Confidence (Tuesday)

• Durable Goods Orders (Wednesday)

• C + I + G + X (Friday)

Globalization creates interlocking fragility, while reducing volatility and giving the appearance of stability. In other words it creates devastating Black Swans. We have never lived before under the threat of a global collapse.

--N.N. Taleb

Patrick M. Ambrus
Analyze Capital LLC
Twitter: AnalyzeCapital


  1. C+I+G+X is an ode to an old friend of ours. Definitely, one of the best instructional courses I attended during my undergraduate studies.


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