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Friday, March 4, 2011

Weekly Performance March 4, 2010

I made a call on the dollar and crude February 28, 2011 <--, when the week started...

From the 28th of Feb:

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Dollar -
Crude +



10:00 GMT
Dollar Index March Contract: 76.935
ICE Brent April Contract: 113.24
WTI April CME: 98.66

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As of today 11:38 GMT March 4, 2010

Dollar Index March Contract: 76.400
ICE Brent April: 115.99
WTI April CME: 104.91


Results:

Dollar IndexICE Brent April 11WTI April CMETotal Value
+54 cents+275 cents+625 cents+954 cents

So the net week gains would be 954 cents. Not bad, but could have been much better if:

  • gotten better USD exposure via forex
  • Closed out brent when it spiked to 117 mid week, would have been up at least 100 cents more
Spreads between WTI and Brent reached all time historical highs this week of about 16 points. This gap closed at the peak mid week the next day. Spread plays would not have been as profitable as much as out right longing crude positions as I had done. However, I could have maximized the big spread gap-up by closing out brent and letting WTI run. In the end, I decided to let it play out as I believed in longer term potential. 

The dollar was hugely a mix bag this week due to Trichet. I would say I observed mostly dollar strength tendencies across most majors but the GBP and EUR held ground based of inflation/interest rate plays the whole time.  As we know the EUR is a bigger weight in the dollar index this made my call stagnant. Post NFP again was a mixed bag too with initial dollar weakness then a turn around with dollar strength seeming to take hold for the day. However 2 -3 hours in the EURUSD reversed and almost broke 1.40. However, volume died and everyone went home. 

All in all a decent week, stay tuned for next weeks action.


-----

Alexander Lê
Managing Partner
Analyze Capital LLC
AnalyzeCapital@gmail.com

3 comments:

  1. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  2. So I expect to see you in a ferrari soon!

    ReplyDelete
  3. 900 cents or $9.00 gain in oil would imply $6250/contract + 2750/contract oil gain + an additional gain of $270 per DX contract = $9,070 minimum gain this week. Even if one managed 100k, that imply an 9.07% ROC in one week. That is more than decent.

    ReplyDelete

 
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