Dollar: USX SEPT
Dollar strength today. Mid- London Hours into New York Hours strong dollar strength and by mid day a slight correction be for ending on higher highs for the day. Currently if prices breach strongly the 75 range on daily close, it's possible the dollar is forming bottom. A failure at > 75.00 should confirm a big risk on trend to come. UST treasury rally should confirm strong risk aversion with todays move on dollar up UST up and equities big time down.
Forex:
Major pairs are still at significant psychological levels indicating price action can go either way. Will accommodating rumors come through or will risk aversion remain? It seems all IMF increased downside risk materialized... If 1.40 EURUSD and 1.60 GBPUSD all fail we can see the dollar rally very significantly.
Crude: WTI front month SEPT
Crude behaved counter to the typical correlation. As UK hours went to New York the dollar strength effect wore off as the EIA report sent crude from 80 to 83 within a few hours. It is likely that the petroleum status report indicated further tightening of supply. This should help buoy crude prices above 80 support. By mid New York time crude sold off but made a higher high.
US Equities:
Post FOMC rally has been completely erased with today's risk aversion. It seems that SPX cash and ES SEPT are finally lining up. Heavy pressure forming for further bearish moves. Heavy volume tends to confirm bearish sentiment. If correlations hold we should see the dollar rally. However the USDX is still at a tipping point.
Gold:
Mania.... enough said.
Analyze Capital LLC
Alexander Lê
Managing Partner
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