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Monday, January 21, 2013

AMZN - JAN 2013


I was looking at AMZN back in NOV/DEC 2012. I'm not really a stock guy but looking purely on technicals here. Though in general after some venture building experience stocks do suddenly make more sense after all. Its something I could probably understand with time. Some of those fundamentals that were drilled into me back in 2006 make more sense.

All in all though with current scale, don't think its still the game for me unless I played some futures, but then again never the same liquidity I'd be looking that I could get in currencies or commodities at better leverage.

Over this year I'll re examine the basic and see if I can make any interesting plays, may be play some long term investment oriented ideas over trades and vice versa.

In general, after having a WHOLE blank year I think it would be good to clean the slate and reformulate strategy. Study some history and see if I can make a better product this year...

Off the tangent...

AMZN looks amazing on the chart long term, 5 year and Max. 5 Year steady trend. If I learned anything its really hard playing the long term trends as the path to up is very confusing and tricky from 5 - 10% volatility jumps. Sometimes those fundamentals will really kill you when information was never clear and present as well... 180 degrees thesis killer.

I would make this call as of January based of basic eye balling...

buy into the dip within the first quarter. Trend should still be strong through out 2013. The stock has amazingly outperformed the market in the past 5 years and I would expect it to continue to do so.

I think from here it would be good to look at putting the fundamental picture together here to fillin the holes and gaps to see if this makes sense as a good long term play.

Previously I was interested in shorting if there were solid closes on the daily below 220 but that never happend with strong SMA support.

In general break up top confirms strong upward momentum with strong gap up in price... the only real bad thing is the lack of volume confirmation.

Again a correction maybe due and hopefully strong fundamental catalyst can kick in to get this trend really going.

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