Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Market Comments March 1st 2010

A great day for ADMIN tasks:

Had some real time new tweets about some brief thought on forex, on the whole today though FX was DEAD ... zzzZZZzzz

  • CAD paired back most of its losses
  • I see the EUR/USD and GBP/USD consolidation as bullish
  • NZD still within my bullish technical considerations with high short term risks
  • Has the CHF bottomed or is it in breather mode? If the risk is back on we should see a big break to the upside
  • Just like the NZD the AUD is stagnant
  • USD/SGD looks like its loosing steam to the downside as well. 
  • USD/HKD looking at some serious long term resistance
  • The Brent/WTI spread 16 pts apart crude continues to rise despite mild dollar strength today
  • Nat Gas front month still stuck below that 4 range... 
  • Heating Oil front month really took off with seasonality and seems to have legs up, but I can't help but feel its way over extended.
  • Crude Oil Volatility still at all time highs (though slightly down from its peak)
At least for crude things are panning out the way I expected them to so far. 


Continued consolidation, some will say candlestick reading shows bearish moves on the SPX. Today's intraday was unnerving for some. I will point out that recent volume action would complement any further downside moves, as compared to the last 5%+ downside correction which  lacked volume confirmation and lead to a continued uptrend. The current move we see has much more bearish volume conviction. Again despite a bullish pattern picture still being in tack I still maintain my short term bear view. 

My Feb 23, 2010 post gives better explanation of the short term bear view. Click HERE (scroll to equity section)

I haven't digested mainstream headline news in awhile. Look like my read isn't too bad so far. Today was mostly a catch up day on Admin work. Waiting for response from the Delaware department of state, and will be getting legal documentation for the structures tomorrow. Furthermore, the strategy testing account is now funded and locked and loaded. Ill be updating on the account as it develops. In the mean time there are tons of other infrastructural matters to attend to. 


Alexander Lê
Managing Partner
Analyze Capital LLC

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