Thursday, September 22, 2011

Quick Update Post Fed Action Sept 22, 2011

Panic seems to be the theme. No pause in bearish trend.

  • US treasury futures behaving exactly as the twist was defined. 10Y price breakouts to the upside. 30Y steady but yet to break out. 2Y and 7Y tanked.
  • DX 78 was key, and break out led to full out USDCHF breakout (broken confidence in Eurozeone). Next test 80 in sight. Fail at 80 = possible risk on correction. Perhaps try to fade 00's
  • USDCAD extending bullish breakout to top fibs. USDNOK Extending bullish break out to top fibs. Yen tried to unwind but went all wild; USDYEN rallied 700+ pips and has pared back all those gains since then.
  • EURUSD 1.38 --> 1.35 300 pips post fed. Pound no pause continues downward fall to 1.54
  • NZDUSD below previous historical breakout resistance level. AUDUSD below parity.
  • Currencies erased all gains for 2011 pretty much.
  • Interesting gold is very quiet; this seems to be more FED related than panic possibly or gold has been priced in or is correcting from it overvalued highs. If risk aversion is really hear 2000 target is in sights.
  • ES technically can be still considered bull trend.Prints that stick below 1140 can reverse this.
  • NG making new all time lows ahead of supply numbers
  • Shorting crude at 85 was correct (short 84.9 ---> 83). Seems trend can extend. Look to re-enter on bounces.

It seems that 2011 will be a slightly bearish year if we can get the risk rally/risk correction before the year ends. If not this year will be bearish overall. Its possible that all this bearish sentiment can create a self fulfilling prophecy that will lead the world back in to recession. At this point both scenarios seem very possible.

Analyze Capital LLC

No comments:

Post a Comment

This Blog has been developed by Analyze Capital LLC, and as an independent organization we provide “AS IS” information without warranty. The ideas and opinions expressed by the contributers of this blog are personal and do not represent the actions or policies of Analyze Capital LLC. The contents of this blog do not intend to assert recommendations or to offer advice of any kind. We are not responsible the consequences, be they gains or losses, that may result from using any of the information from this blog.